Crystal Ballin''s calibration
Grade: B, Score: -2.16
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Crystal Ballin' bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
5%
10%
- At the end of July, will Crystal Ballin' be more popular than the Market Manipulation Podcast?NOṀ20
- At the end of July, will Crystal Ballin' be more popular than the Market Manipulation Podcast?NOṀ10
- Will the Crystal Ballin' Discord server have more people in it than the Manifold Discord server before the end of 2023?NOṀ10
60%
70%
80%