Will Jimmy Carter be alive on the 4th of July?
closes Jul 4

Resolves YES if Jimmy Carter is alive on July 4th 2023. I will wait a couple days afterwards in order to make sure there isnt any news after the fact.

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johnleoks avatar


Predictor avatar
Predictor 🔥is predicting NO at 74%


Jimmy Carter Completes 4-Minute Mile
Jimmy Carter Completes 4-Minute Mile
PLAINS, GA—Pumping his fists in the air while racing across the finish line, former President Jimmy Carter reportedly ran a four-minute mile Thursday. “I took up jogging right around the time I entered hospice care because the doctors thought it would be good for my health,” said Carter, who attribu…
Crab avatar
Crabbought Ṁ50 of YES
Predictor avatar
Predictor 🔥is predicting NO at 75%

@Crab There is always a little truth to every joke. I wouldn't write this off.

Crab avatar
Crabis predicting YES at 75%

@Predictor there's layers to this 🧅

PatMyron avatar
Pat Myronbought Ṁ10 of NO
Karsh avatar
Karshis predicting YES at 74% (edited)

Jimmy Carter's grandson: “We did think that when he went into hospice it was very close to the end, now, I’m just going to tell you, he’s going to be 99 in October.” source

saulmunn avatar
Saul Munnis predicting NO at 75%

@Karsh i feel like they would say these things/publish that sort of article regardless of his chances — i don’t think it tracks the truth very well.

DylanSlagh avatar
Dylan Slagh

@SaulMunn The fact that he’s not on the brink of death is news and useful information. He very well could have been and this article basically rules that out. It doesn’t say much about how well he will be weeks or months down the road but it should cause a significant update in the short term

saulmunn avatar
Saul Munnis predicting NO at 73%

@DylanSlagh the counterfactual isn’t “the news announces his death,” the counterfactual is “no news.” i don’t think this should update us much (maybe a percentage or two?) from “no news.”

MayMeta avatar
MayMetais predicting YES at 73% (edited)

@SaulMunn It's true that Jimmy Carter might die any day now, despite receiving guests, joking, laughing, and eating peanut butter ice-cream. But it's also true that a socially active old person has a lower chance of suddenly dying than, say, an old person who's in a coma or bedridden.

The linked source indicates that Jimmy Carter is not in the 'worst condition possible', and therefore, the probability of him dying reduces.

Also people usually hint their subjective probability of their relative dying through tone, and the tone in the source seems hopeful and positive, rather than mourning. So who knows, maybe Jimmy Carter's family received an updated (more optimistic) prognosis from the doctors or hospice workers?

Although I agree with you, that this update should be on the scale of 1-2% and not, say, 7-15%.

LukasDay avatar
Lukas Dayis predicting YES at 73%

@MayMeta - to take the conspiracy elevator one more level down...

Dying people's relatives are notoriously bad at gauging health. Also, dying people usually experience a surge of energy lasting 1 or 2 days before death and relatives often mistake this surge as "they're getting better" or "they're gonna live for a few more months".

The grandson's observation came out on the 23rd. Assuming it's accurate, Carter could last til July. But if he's mistaken and his grandpa is in the last stages of dying, then Carter could be dead by the end of the week.

VictorLi avatar
Victor Libought Ṁ40 of YES

me and my wallet believes in you jimmy

JohnSmithb9be avatar
John Smithbought Ṁ40 of YES

Odds drop considerably if he’s near a rabbit warren.

Anonymouse avatar

assassination market?

42irrationalist avatar
42irrationalistbought Ṁ100 of YES


conradgetty avatar
Conrad Gettyis predicting YES at 42%

jimmy will pull through 😤💪😤🚫⚱️🚫😤💪😤

esusatyo avatar
Enrico Susatyois predicting YES at 30%

Hmmm what’s with the sudden drop?

Karsh avatar
Karshbought Ṁ50 of YES

@esusatyo one guy that keeps betting on Carter dying. He did that in previous markets as well

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