Resolves YES if Jimmy Carter is alive on July 4th 2023. I will wait a couple days afterwards in order to make sure there isnt any news after the fact.
FYI:
@Crab There is always a little truth to every joke. I wouldn't write this off.
@SaulMunn The fact that he’s not on the brink of death is news and useful information. He very well could have been and this article basically rules that out. It doesn’t say much about how well he will be weeks or months down the road but it should cause a significant update in the short term
@DylanSlagh the counterfactual isn’t “the news announces his death,” the counterfactual is “no news.” i don’t think this should update us much (maybe a percentage or two?) from “no news.”
@SaulMunn It's true that Jimmy Carter might die any day now, despite receiving guests, joking, laughing, and eating peanut butter ice-cream. But it's also true that a socially active old person has a lower chance of suddenly dying than, say, an old person who's in a coma or bedridden.
The linked source indicates that Jimmy Carter is not in the 'worst condition possible', and therefore, the probability of him dying reduces.
Also people usually hint their subjective probability of their relative dying through tone, and the tone in the source seems hopeful and positive, rather than mourning. So who knows, maybe Jimmy Carter's family received an updated (more optimistic) prognosis from the doctors or hospice workers?
Although I agree with you, that this update should be on the scale of 1-2% and not, say, 7-15%.
@MayMeta - to take the conspiracy elevator one more level down...
Dying people's relatives are notoriously bad at gauging health. Also, dying people usually experience a surge of energy lasting 1 or 2 days before death and relatives often mistake this surge as "they're getting better" or "they're gonna live for a few more months".
The grandson's observation came out on the 23rd. Assuming it's accurate, Carter could last til July. But if he's mistaken and his grandpa is in the last stages of dying, then Carter could be dead by the end of the week.
