Will Jimmy Carter be alive on the 4th of July?
256
2.2K
2K
resolved Jul 5
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if Jimmy Carter is alive on July 4th 2023. I will wait a couple days afterwards in order to make sure there isnt any news after the fact.

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predicted YES

https://manifold.markets/SirSquax/will-jimmy-carter-be-alive-on-janua?r=U2lyU3F1YXg

predicted YES

By God it feels good to win this one.

predicted YES

OK BOIS NO MORE STALLING, HE IS ALIVE. GOD BLESS JIMMY CARTER, GOD BLESS AMERICA, AND GOD BLESS OUR TROOPS! amen 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🦅🦅🦅

predicted YES
predicted YES

@Mirek We can make him immortal if we all bet hard enough on YES: /JosephNoonan/will-jimmy-carter-still-be-alive-in

predicted YES

Since there's been confusion behind my creation of this market, l can share my reasoning for it.

No, i don't have insider info. I wanted to learn how to creation markets with long odds (unlikely markets) and this one was a perfect fit. It was an experiment to learn such trading, and i allocated a budget to myself for it. It seems this has gotten too many traders who are confused about this now.

I just wanted to learn some market dynamics, guys.

@conradgetty You didn't create this market. But you still wanted to learn some market dynamics.

sold Ṁ45 of YES

The recent dip seems to be due to https://www.pbssocal.org/shows/newshour/clip/jimmy-carter-i-ll-be-prepared-for-anything-that-comes-1447285372

However, looking into the HTML of this page reveals that this probably happened in 2020:

Additionally, Carter has been diagnosed with Melanoma in the brain since as early as August 2015.

predicted YES

Since there's been confusion behind my creation of this market, l can share my reasoning for it.

No, i don't have insider info. I wanted to learn how to creation markets with long odds (unlikely markets) and this one was a perfect fit. It was an experiment to learn such trading, and i allocated a budget to myself for it. It seems this has gotten too many traders who are confused about this now.

I just wanted to learn some market dynamics, guys.

predicted YES

Since there's been confusion behind trading on this market, l can share my reasoning for the YES.

No, i don't have insider info. I wanted to learn how to bet on markets with long odds (unlikely markets) and this one was a perfect fit. It was an experiment to learn such trading, and i allocated a budget to myself for it. It seems this has gotten too many traders who are confused about this now.

I just wanted to learn some market dynamics, guys.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Since there's been confusion behind trading on this market, l can share my reasoning for the NO.

No, i don't have insider info. I wanted to learn how to bet on markets with long odds (unlikely markets) and this one was a perfect fit. It was an experiment to learn such trading, and i allocated a budget to myself for it. It seems this has gotten too many traders who are confused about this now.

I just wanted to learn some market dynamics, guys.

predicted NO

@bingeworthy oh no is this manifold's first copypasta?

bought Ṁ1,278 of YES

Since there's been confusion behind trading on this market, l can share my reasoning for the YES.

No, i don't have insider info. I wanted to learn how to bet on markets with long odds (unlikely markets) and this one was a perfect fit. It was an experiment to learn such trading, and i allocated a budget to myself for it. It seems this has gotten too many traders who are confused about this now.

I just wanted to learn some market dynamics, guys.

.

bought Ṁ10 of NO
predicted YES

Jimmy Carter's grandson: “We did think that when he went into hospice it was very close to the end, now, I’m just going to tell you, he’s going to be 99 in October.” source

predicted NO

@Karsh i feel like they would say these things/publish that sort of article regardless of his chances — i don’t think it tracks the truth very well.

@SaulMunn The fact that he’s not on the brink of death is news and useful information. He very well could have been and this article basically rules that out. It doesn’t say much about how well he will be weeks or months down the road but it should cause a significant update in the short term

predicted NO

@DylanSlagh the counterfactual isn’t “the news announces his death,” the counterfactual is “no news.” i don’t think this should update us much (maybe a percentage or two?) from “no news.”

predicted YES

@SaulMunn It's true that Jimmy Carter might die any day now, despite receiving guests, joking, laughing, and eating peanut butter ice-cream. But it's also true that a socially active old person has a lower chance of suddenly dying than, say, an old person who's in a coma or bedridden.

The linked source indicates that Jimmy Carter is not in the 'worst condition possible', and therefore, the probability of him dying reduces.

Also people usually hint their subjective probability of their relative dying through tone, and the tone in the source seems hopeful and positive, rather than mourning. So who knows, maybe Jimmy Carter's family received an updated (more optimistic) prognosis from the doctors or hospice workers?

Although I agree with you, that this update should be on the scale of 1-2% and not, say, 7-15%.

predicted YES

@MayMeta - to take the conspiracy elevator one more level down...

Dying people's relatives are notoriously bad at gauging health. Also, dying people usually experience a surge of energy lasting 1 or 2 days before death and relatives often mistake this surge as "they're getting better" or "they're gonna live for a few more months".

The grandson's observation came out on the 23rd. Assuming it's accurate, Carter could last til July. But if he's mistaken and his grandpa is in the last stages of dying, then Carter could be dead by the end of the week.