Resolves YES if Jimmy Carter is alive on July 4th 2023. I will wait a couple days afterwards in order to make sure there isnt any news after the fact.
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https://manifold.markets/SirSquax/will-jimmy-carter-be-alive-on-janua?r=U2lyU3F1YXg
Oh sh*t! Never thought I'd actually see it happen!
https://www.npr.org/2023/07/03/1185864041/joseph-pedott-man-behind-the-ch-ch-ch-chia-pet-dies-at-91
This reminds me that Jimmy Carter isn't invincible and he too will die, but not until he lives to 100!
@Mirek We can make him immortal if we all bet hard enough on YES: /JosephNoonan/will-jimmy-carter-still-be-alive-in
Since there's been confusion behind my creation of this market, l can share my reasoning for it.
No, i don't have insider info. I wanted to learn how to creation markets with long odds (unlikely markets) and this one was a perfect fit. It was an experiment to learn such trading, and i allocated a budget to myself for it. It seems this has gotten too many traders who are confused about this now.
I just wanted to learn some market dynamics, guys.
The recent dip seems to be due to https://www.pbssocal.org/shows/newshour/clip/jimmy-carter-i-ll-be-prepared-for-anything-that-comes-1447285372
However, looking into the HTML of this page reveals that this probably happened in 2020:
Additionally, Carter has been diagnosed with Melanoma in the brain since as early as August 2015.
Since there's been confusion behind my creation of this market, l can share my reasoning for it.
No, i don't have insider info. I wanted to learn how to creation markets with long odds (unlikely markets) and this one was a perfect fit. It was an experiment to learn such trading, and i allocated a budget to myself for it. It seems this has gotten too many traders who are confused about this now.
I just wanted to learn some market dynamics, guys.
Since there's been confusion behind trading on this market, l can share my reasoning for the YES.
No, i don't have insider info. I wanted to learn how to bet on markets with long odds (unlikely markets) and this one was a perfect fit. It was an experiment to learn such trading, and i allocated a budget to myself for it. It seems this has gotten too many traders who are confused about this now.
I just wanted to learn some market dynamics, guys.
Since there's been confusion behind trading on this market, l can share my reasoning for the NO.
No, i don't have insider info. I wanted to learn how to bet on markets with long odds (unlikely markets) and this one was a perfect fit. It was an experiment to learn such trading, and i allocated a budget to myself for it. It seems this has gotten too many traders who are confused about this now.
I just wanted to learn some market dynamics, guys.
Since there's been confusion behind trading on this market, l can share my reasoning for the YES.
No, i don't have insider info. I wanted to learn how to bet on markets with long odds (unlikely markets) and this one was a perfect fit. It was an experiment to learn such trading, and i allocated a budget to myself for it. It seems this has gotten too many traders who are confused about this now.
I just wanted to learn some market dynamics, guys.
Jimmy Carter's grandson: “We did think that when he went into hospice it was very close to the end, now, I’m just going to tell you, he’s going to be 99 in October.” source
@Karsh i feel like they would say these things/publish that sort of article regardless of his chances — i don’t think it tracks the truth very well.
@SaulMunn The fact that he’s not on the brink of death is news and useful information. He very well could have been and this article basically rules that out. It doesn’t say much about how well he will be weeks or months down the road but it should cause a significant update in the short term
@DylanSlagh the counterfactual isn’t “the news announces his death,” the counterfactual is “no news.” i don’t think this should update us much (maybe a percentage or two?) from “no news.”
@SaulMunn It's true that Jimmy Carter might die any day now, despite receiving guests, joking, laughing, and eating peanut butter ice-cream. But it's also true that a socially active old person has a lower chance of suddenly dying than, say, an old person who's in a coma or bedridden.
The linked source indicates that Jimmy Carter is not in the 'worst condition possible', and therefore, the probability of him dying reduces.
Also people usually hint their subjective probability of their relative dying through tone, and the tone in the source seems hopeful and positive, rather than mourning. So who knows, maybe Jimmy Carter's family received an updated (more optimistic) prognosis from the doctors or hospice workers?
Although I agree with you, that this update should be on the scale of 1-2% and not, say, 7-15%.
@MayMeta - to take the conspiracy elevator one more level down...
Dying people's relatives are notoriously bad at gauging health. Also, dying people usually experience a surge of energy lasting 1 or 2 days before death and relatives often mistake this surge as "they're getting better" or "they're gonna live for a few more months".
The grandson's observation came out on the 23rd. Assuming it's accurate, Carter could last til July. But if he's mistaken and his grandpa is in the last stages of dying, then Carter could be dead by the end of the week.