Will the Crystal Ballin’ podcast release an episode before September?
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Plus
57
Ṁ200k
resolved Sep 1
Resolved
YES

Refers to the air date of the episode, not the recording date.

Final hours update: This will be considered from the point of view of the US Pacific time zone like the close time suggests. I will use my best judgement in determining the exact time it first comes out on a major platform (YouTube, Spotify or Apple Music would all count). If it comes out on a major platform but I'm pretty uncertain about whether the time was in September, I'll lean toward resolving NO. If it only comes out on other platforms but there's no indication of where it can be found linked in the comments below by the close time, I'll resolve NO in that case as well.

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predicted YES
predicted YES

@BTE nice! is there a text transcript to read?

predicted YES

@Mira Of the interview yes! It was automated and I haven't had time to read through it yet but if you don't mind that I am happy to share it! I plan on putting out the full transcript on a substack once I have time to make sure it is accurate.

Just finished, great first episode! Thanks for all the hard work on it 🙏

predicted NO

@BTE awesome work ! This was a great interview.

predicted YES

@Joshua @Odoacre Thank you!

brubsbyboughtṀ1,000YES

brubsby careful aping people's bets or they'll rug you

@Mira hehe

just trying to find a cozy market to park my ill-gotten gains in overnight

predicted NO

probably not gonna be awake for release, so y'all have all night and maybe some of tomorrow to bet on

predicted NO

I think there should be more clearly defined resolution criteria, especially regarding where it is released (i say this having almost no position in this market).

predicted NO

@8 The time to bring this up was last month, but I will add my comments from below to the criteria.

He could bet all his mana on no, then decide not to post it today, and he'd probably become the richest person on Manifold.

predicted YES

@ItsMe The main problem with that theory is I already own almost all the YES.

predicted NO

Ah

@BTE There's more mana to be gained by selling all the yes and going all in on no though. People invested more mana into yes so you would be gaining more.

predicted NO

@Shump Right now I'm reading that spending 10 million on NO gets 10 million + ~16k shares. But it looks like BTE has 19k, so all of that would become worthless, and it wouldn't be worth it. Could change if more people buy YES.

predicted NO

@BTE The real strat is to not release it and then when I remake the same market for October and no one believes it will come out, release it then and make millions.

@BoltonBailey There's currently about 30k mana invested by people other than BTE into YES, and only ~1.3k invested into NO. The gains for switching sides would be massive

@Shump Where are you getting that from? I have about 9k mana on NO which I lose if the ep drops in time

predicted NO

(most of it was directly against BTE in limit orders)

predicted YES

@Conflux It will be live within the hour. I know you aren’t much of a night owl though so enjoy it in the morning!

Confirming that this is Pacific Time?

predicted NO

@Conflux Also, in case of some sort of frantic midnight scenario, what are the exact criteria for release?

predicted NO

@Conflux Yeah pacific time like the close date. I will use my best judgement in determining the exact time it first came out on a major platform, but if it’s uncertain/this is some kind of 11:59 stunt I will not be inclined to resolve yes.

predicted NO

@BoltonBailey @BTE be warned.

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