Who are "reasonable observers"? And what do you mean by "certified"? If someone comes forward with what they consider evidence and multiple members of Congress consider this to have some merit—possibly enough for some to vote for an objection to the certification of the results—would this market resolve yes? Or do you have some other source in mind, e.g. yourself? I'd say it's very possible a substantial number of people will doubt the outcome no matter what, and likewise a substantial number will not doubt it. I don't know under what circumstances you personally would consider anyone to be reasonable.

@CryptoNeoLiberalist As a starter litmus test, would the 2020 election have resolved this criteria as YES or NO?