Basically, will Trump (or anyone else) SUCCEED in making the election very different in some way? I am talking:
Trump running again (not just try to, not just a write in campaign, actually having his name on ballot papers)
Falsified election results (on a large scale, not just localised corruption or errors with voting machines)
The election not occurring at all during 2028
I may make an exception if it's legitimately postponed, but definite no resolution if there is no election by July 4 2029
per the comments no US elections have been postponed for more than 150 years, so this is a very high bar
This postponement must be for a very good reason - a severe, widespread natural disaster, pandemic worse than covid, etc
No peaceful transfer of power
e.g. Trump is escorted out of the White House by force
Major restrictions in who can vote which in practice prevents a large number of citizens from voting
not just simply voter ID requirements, not just trans people being unable to vote if their gender markers don't match
eg women who have changed their names due to marriage being ineligible as people are expressing concern about at the time of writing in early 2025
The USA ceasing to exist (being annexed by Canada, asteroid impact, unfriendly AI, being renamed to Trumpland or Freedomia, etc)
A state being removed or split in two for election manipulation reasons
A new president because Trump died (natural causes or otherwise) or resigned won't count unless it's as part of a civil war or something similarly unprecedented
Nor will Trump being forcibly removed from the presidency due to the 25th amendment (being declared unfit), unless it is part of a thinly veiled coup
Any changes to election related laws/constitutions to allow things that weren't previous allowed, or ban things that weren't previously banned
e.g. raising the minimum presidential age to 80
Manipulating the line of secession in some way
Basically anything "weird" that hasn't happened in the past 100-150 years, that relates to the integrity of the process
So eg the candidates wearing funny hats, though weird and hasn't happened, wouldn't count
Attempts of any of the above don't count, the election (or the transfer of power after) has to be affected. And nothing that is precedented counts, either. So the following don't count:
the supreme court rejecting a request from Trump to get a third term
routine gerrymandering
protests or civil unrest related to the election, unless it is severe and widespread
a candidate claiming the election was illegitimate/stolen and advocating for violence, if said violence does not eventuate
Will resolve "YES" one week after the uneventful inauguration of new president, or "NO" prior as required.
Resolution source for facts will be an unbiased news source, I am thinking the BBC, or if the NYT and Fox News agree on it we can probably assume it's true.
Please request clarification in the comments!
As with all my long-term markets, if I stop using manifold I encourage another user who seems to know what I'm getting at to "adopt" the market, answer questions, and tell mods how to resolve when appropriate.
The intention is to gauge the risk of the fears that "America will become a dictatorship" in something resembling an objective way
Update 2025-02-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Normal Elections Clarification
All previous elections this century are considered normal, including Biden’s election despite the January 6th insurrection.
An election would be marked as abnormal if an insurrection or similar event had directly resulted in a seizure of power (for example, if Trump had taken power as a result).
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Also I'm unfamiliar with the laws around this, but any shenanigans with Trump using the line of succession to make himself president after the election of someone else (say Vance runs as president with Trump as VP while saying that he will resign on inauguration day to give Trump a third term) would be abnormal, even if technically allowed.
If there's a constitutional amendment passed that lets him run again, is that normal?
@makeworld thank you! I am a bit disappointed I couldn't also fold a "civil war" into it, because as it stands an unambiguous civil war that keeps Trump in power, followed by a normal election on schedule, would resolve yes, but it is a different though related situation in terms of what people are afraid of at the moment....
"The election not occurring at all during 2028 (I may make an exception if it's legitimately postponed and will be happening in early 2029, but definite no resolution if no election, by July 4 2029)"
"In fact, the United States has never delayed a presidential election and only moved it for administrative reasons twice—both within the first 60 years of the country’s founding." -https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/article/united-states-never-delayed-presidential-election-why-tricky
The election has never been delayed for political reasons and hasn't been delayed for any reason at all for over a century and a half.
Even a delay of a single day would be extremely abnormal.
@lemon10 it would have to be, like, natural disaster / worse pandemic than covid. Definitely agree that any delay at all would resolve no unless it's a 1 in 100 year justification!