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Will anti-green policies boost UK Tory Polling?
31
Ṁ590Ṁ2.5k
resolved Dec 6
Resolved
NO

Today Sunak rolled back more (minor) green policies. Last week he gave a strangely dishonest speech about targeting green policies.

It appears to be narrow populist moves based on the London suburb centric start of ULEZ. Is it actually popular though?

Since unpicking the effects are difficult, and unpicking the marginal seat targeting Vs popular vote is more than I'm being paid for:

This market resolvesv YES if the following website finds a gain in Tory Polling numbers comparing August to November.

https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/

POLITICO Poll of Polls — British polls, trends and election news for the United Kingdom and Scotland
All polls, trends and election news for the the United Kingdom, Scotland and London — Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems, Brexit Party, SNP, Greens, Scottish independence referendum and Scotland election polls.
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UK Politics
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resolving was much easier then expected. measuring at quarter points, august was between 26% and 27%, november was between 24 and 25%.

Clear cut result.

Will resolve it tomorrow

predictedNO

This resolves based on the National parliament voting intention chart, right? So resolves YES if that data shows > 26% for 30th November?

This has like a 50/50 chance of being true if the policies have no effect, and the direction the polls move in over the next couple of months is random (which it probably mostly is.) Always read the resolution criteria before betting!

@DavidMathers so basically, does the policy have a significant effect? if it doesn't, then 50/50. If it does, then bias the way you think its effects the polls

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