Resolves YES if, within 24 hours after this market is created (per Manifold’s timestamp), U.S. military forces conduct a kinetic strike on targets inside Venezuela’s internationally recognized territory (land, airspace, or territorial waters). “Kinetic strike” includes air/missile/drone strikes, naval gunfire, artillery, or a ground raid in which U.S. forces intentionally employ live munitions or direct-fire weapons. Coalition operations count if U.S. munitions hit targets in Venezuela.

Resolves NO otherwise.

Exclusions:

Does not count cyber/electronic actions without munitions, economic/diplomatic measures, seizures or interdictions outside Venezuela’s territorial waters, strikes on Venezuelan assets outside Venezuela, training mishaps, or purely uncorroborated social media rumors.

Evidence standard:

Primary sources include official U.S. DoD/SOUTHCOM statements and credible major outlets (e.g., AP, Reuters, BBC).

Close & resolve:

Set market to close in 24 hours after creation. I’ll resolve as soon as criteria are clearly met.