Will the wild population of the Admiralty Five-striped Skink (​​Emoia mivarti) become extinct by 2100?
47%
chance

This market focuses on the extinction risk of the wild population of the Admiralty Five-striped Skink, a species that was classified as Data Deficient on the IUCN Red List in 2011. It will resolve YES, if the species is declared Extinct in the Wild or Extinct by the IUCN by 2100, or earlier. It will also resolve YES, if there is other strong evidence in 2100 that the wild population is extinct. The market will resolve NO, if there is strong evidence in 2100, that the wild population of the Admiralty Five-striped Skink persists.

For more information about the species, see:

IUCN assessment

Wikipedia

For comparison here the market about the full extinction risk of the species, including captive individuals:

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