Will the Admiralty Five-striped Skink (​​Emoia mivarti) become extinct by 2100?
44%
chance

This market focuses on the extinction risk of the Admiralty Five-striped Skink, a species that was classified as Data Deficient on the IUCN Red List in 2011. Extinction is defined as the death of the last individual, including wild and captive animals. The market will resolve YES, if the species is declared Extinct by the IUCN by 2100, or earlier. It will also resolve YES, if there is other strong evidence in 2100 that the species is extinct. The market will resolve NO, if there is strong evidence in 2100, that the Admiralty Five-striped Skink persists.

For more information about the species, see:

IUCN assessment

Wikipedia

For comparison here the market about the wild extinction risk of the species:

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Seems to be a contradiction possible here. Resolve YES when the animal is extinct, but then de-extinct IE woolly mammoth before 2100. I suggest removing the "The market will resolve NO, if there is strong evidence in 2100, that the Admiralty Five-striped Skink persists." clause.

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