Will the Hazepski subscriber market be re-resolved YES within two weeks?
Will the Hazepski subscriber market be re-resolved YES within two weeks?
9
170Ṁ2620resolved May 4
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The NO resolution is somewhat controversial, since Hazepski's subscriber count was fluctuating a lot around 11:59, when the market was supposed to check. The evidence I've seen suggests it was most likely resolved incorrectly and should be flipped to YES, but I could be wrong. Or the market creator could disagree.
To count for this market, it must be re-resolved to YES by May 14 at 6pm PT.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.