The website for Manifest 2023 (Manifold's planned September conference in Berkeley) lists Scott Alexander, Aella, Destiny, and Robert Miles ("...and more") under "Speakers & Guests of Honor." [UPDATE: It no longer lists Scott.] Will each of them show up and be part of the official program in some way?
[CLARIFICATION: To be part of the official program, a person must somehow be leading an event - broadly defined. For instance, giving a talk, running a session, or being on a panel. Even if a person is a Guest of Honor, they must be part of the official program to count for this market. See my other market for one without this criterion.]
For this market, a virtual appearance counts as long as it's live (not pre-recorded).
I hope to attend the conference to verify, but otherwise I'll get info from people who were there.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
1,000
3.00plot summary:
Scott, Aella, Destiny, and Rob are announced as guests, so I make this market on whether they all come
I feel a bit awkward about the fact that I added “as part of the official program”, so I add a clarification to the comments (that they need to run an event, be on a panel, give a talk, or something like that to count) and make a new, better market, which has far less drama
Scott says on his blog that it’s like 50/50 whether he comes, and continues to seem like he might not come
Scott ends up coming after all (along with Aella and Destiny)
Robert Miles comes. He’s sick, but not with covid, so he says that he’s not actually planning to give a talk
However, some bettors still think that Rob attending is enough. My clarification is still buried in the comments, so I add it to the market description
I reimburse one of the traders (Mikhail) for their lost profit resulting from the confusion
Writer (Rational Animations) also gets confused and bets M$15,000 on YES, but Joshua alerts them so they don’t lose a ton of mana. “Yes” is now at like 15% (the chance that Rob changes his mind)
I look at the schedule for Sunday, and see that Emmett Shear’s talk is now MCed by Rob Miles, which wasn’t on the schedule before. “Yes” now shoots up to like 85%
Rob Miles ends up not showing up to MC this, even though he was added last-minute (he says he didn’t think it would count as a talk, so he wasn’t lying earlier regardless). “Yes” now back down
Rob gives a lightning talk. This clearly doesn’t count (the whole point of lightning talks is that anyone’s allowed to do one spontaneously) but Writer again makes a large bet. This time it’s sort of his fault
Finally, with the conference over, there’s no Rob Miles event, so the market resolves
Biggest profit is @Joshua with an insane M$18,220. Of all the Manifest attendees, shoutout to him for doing by far the most insider trading
@Conflux Funny how much went on behind the scenes. I just saw Rob not coming at 1.4% thought that seemed a little low, bought 10M and got 300M in profit. Without once checking in on the market in between.
I just gave a lightning talk about aisafety.info, does that count :p
@RobertSKMiles Are you the real Robert Miles?
Edit: exceptionally unlikely (that you are). Account is super new and your comments are about what relate to you
Edit: account has a checkmark now meaning I was wrong
@AliciaGrugett Seems like you bought the wrong direction then?
This market will resolve “Yes” after it’s physically confirmed that Rob is emceeing the event