Will Scott Alexander, Aella, Destiny, and Robert Miles all attend Manifest 2023 (as some part of the official program)?
resolved Sep 25
No, Robert Miles won't
No, Scott Alexander won't
No, Aella won't
No, Destiny won't
No, multiple won't (or the conference will be cancelled)

The website for Manifest 2023 (Manifold's planned September conference in Berkeley) lists Scott Alexander, Aella, Destiny, and Robert Miles ("...and more") under "Speakers & Guests of Honor." [UPDATE: It no longer lists Scott.] Will each of them show up and be part of the official program in some way?

[CLARIFICATION: To be part of the official program, a person must somehow be leading an event - broadly defined. For instance, giving a talk, running a session, or being on a panel. Even if a person is a Guest of Honor, they must be part of the official program to count for this market. See my other market for one without this criterion.]

For this market, a virtual appearance counts as long as it's live (not pre-recorded).

I hope to attend the conference to verify, but otherwise I'll get info from people who were there.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

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this market was such a clusterfuck lmao

plot summary:

  • Scott, Aella, Destiny, and Rob are announced as guests, so I make this market on whether they all come

  • I feel a bit awkward about the fact that I added “as part of the official program”, so I add a clarification to the comments (that they need to run an event, be on a panel, give a talk, or something like that to count) and make a new, better market, which has far less drama

  • Scott says on his blog that it’s like 50/50 whether he comes, and continues to seem like he might not come

  • Scott ends up coming after all (along with Aella and Destiny)

  • Robert Miles comes. He’s sick, but not with covid, so he says that he’s not actually planning to give a talk

  • However, some bettors still think that Rob attending is enough. My clarification is still buried in the comments, so I add it to the market description

  • I reimburse one of the traders (Mikhail) for their lost profit resulting from the confusion

  • Writer (Rational Animations) also gets confused and bets M$15,000 on YES, but Joshua alerts them so they don’t lose a ton of mana. “Yes” is now at like 15% (the chance that Rob changes his mind)

  • I look at the schedule for Sunday, and see that Emmett Shear’s talk is now MCed by Rob Miles, which wasn’t on the schedule before. “Yes” now shoots up to like 85%

  • Rob Miles ends up not showing up to MC this, even though he was added last-minute (he says he didn’t think it would count as a talk, so he wasn’t lying earlier regardless). “Yes” now back down

  • Rob gives a lightning talk. This clearly doesn’t count (the whole point of lightning talks is that anyone’s allowed to do one spontaneously) but Writer again makes a large bet. This time it’s sort of his fault

  • Finally, with the conference over, there’s no Rob Miles event, so the market resolves

  • Biggest profit is @Joshua with an insane M$18,220. Of all the Manifest attendees, shoutout to him for doing by far the most insider trading

Never let them know your next move

When you wanted an orgy but got a clusterfuck

@Conflux Funny how much went on behind the scenes. I just saw Rob not coming at 1.4% thought that seemed a little low, bought 10M and got 300M in profit. Without once checking in on the market in between.

bought Ṁ100 of No, Robert Miles won't YES

This is how writer decides this is a bad website and they shouldn't make a video on it

bought Ṁ7,000 of Yes YES

@Joshua writer is just a degen

I just gave a lightning talk about aisafety.info, does that count :p

@RobertMiles I don’t think so, unless you led the lightning talks event

@RobertSKMiles Are you the real Robert Miles?

Edit: exceptionally unlikely (that you are). Account is super new and your comments are about what relate to you

Edit: account has a checkmark now meaning I was wrong

@Traveel I bet it is

@Conflux Quite

bought Ṁ100 of Yes YES

Session ended, no Rob

bought Ṁ500 of No, Robert Miles won't YES

@Joshua This market has been absolutely crazy

bought Ṁ500 of No, Robert Miles won't YES

@Conflux Oy vey!!!!!

bought Ṁ100 of No, Robert Miles won't YES

@SirSalty introduced Emmett, as Rob is not here.

sold Ṁ59 of No, Robert Miles won't NO

@Joshua someone go wake him up

bought Ṁ100 of No, Robert Miles won't YES

He's officially part of the program, so this should resolve to YES.

bought Ṁ1,500 of Yes YES

@AliciaGrugett Seems like you bought the wrong direction then?

This market will resolve “Yes” after it’s physically confirmed that Rob is emceeing the event

@AliciaGrugett notably, we were up until 2 AM and I just got up so he could sleep through it 😂

I am now heading to the talk to witness

@Joshua excellent! I’m showing up to manifest a bit late today so I’ll probably miss it sadly

@Conflux conflux, you're here?! did we meet and I have no idea?

@Stralor we indeed had lunch yesterday! I was sitting next to Sinclair

@Conflux you should come to my Q&A thing!

@Conflux :O secret names abound!

@Conflux when/where?

@Stralor 3pm in B I think