Will Scott Alexander, Aella, Destiny, and Robert Miles all attend Manifest 2023?
resolved Sep 23
No, Scott Alexander won’t
No, Aella won’t
No, Destiny won’t
No, Robert Miles won’t
No, multiple won’t (or the conference will be cancelled)

The website for Manifest 2023 (Manifold's planned September conference in Berkeley) lists Scott Alexander, Aella, Destiny, and Robert Miles ("...and more") under "Speakers & Guests of Honor." [UPDATE: It no longer lists Scott.] Will each of them actually show up?

For this market, a virtual appearance counts as long as it's live (not pre-recorded).

I hope to attend the conference to verify, but otherwise I'll get info from people who were there.

In other words, resolves like the embedded market, but without the "as some part of the official program" part. So any kind of appearance during the conference would count.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.   

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bought Ṁ3,000 of Yes YES

I have now seen all of these people at the venue.

@Joshua If someone else corroborates your report, I’ll resolve immediately.

@Conflux we all attended today yea

bought Ṁ4,000 of Yes YES

I also saw all of them at the venue today.

boughtṀ50No, Scott Alexander ... NO

@Dilon are you just making a leap from Scott logging on to the site tonight?

bought Ṁ40 of No, Scott Alexander ... NO
bought Ṁ100 of Yes YES


bought Ṁ30 of No, Destiny won’t NO

Destiny will travel west to California to attend Manifest in another washout victory for nominative determinism.

Similarly, it should be obvious that Alexander will not manage to make it to the Pacific ocean, despite great effort.

bought Ṁ40 of Yes YES
  • “yes” on this market should be above “yes” on the embedded market

  • is there some confirmation somewhere that Scott is out for sure?

Scott said "less than 50-50" in a recent open thread on ACX.

@Joshua so manifold is interpreting <50 as ~10??

bought Ṁ10 of Yes YES

Possibility he's said more elsewhere I haven't seen... but yeah that's why I'm buying yes 😅

@Joshua less than 50/50 is what you say when you feel bad saying no.

bought Ṁ5 of No, Destiny won’t YES

@BTE yes but:

  • Scott has some commitment to calibration

  • I think he wants to come but has some medical procedure, so if he has an option to reschedule the procedure then he’d probably do that

@Conflux Meh, the medical procedure thing is weird. did he schedule it after telling the manifold team when he would be available because it seems like this event being scheduled so quick after first being announced was probably due to supposed availability of desired featured guests. Scott Alexander was the top billed featured guest so EXTREMELY unlikely they didn't check his schedule before choosing date. This should make you worried about Scott's health, or suspect of this being a real excuse instead of just a rumor started to help save face for Scott.

@BTE I find it hard to believe that Scott would give a dishonest probability when talking about his chance of attending the "assign accurate probabilities to events" conference.

@Shai Less than 50/50 can mean zero.

@Shai And isn't Scott like notoriously mysterious??? Seems to me he enjoys maintaining his pseudo-anonymity.

bought Ṁ20 of Yes YES

@BTE He goes to ACX meetups

This market also counts virtual appearances, which I feel like is also possible.

@Joshua Yep. (Full disclosure: This aspect of the resolution criteria might not have been super well-publicized, since it referenced the embedded market and I just now copied the info over to be more easily readable. However, virtual appearances have always counted for this pair of markets.)

@Conflux Why should it be higher?

@LightLawliet What is “it” referring to here?

What’s the link to the conference?