Will Scott Alexander, Aella, Destiny, and Robert Miles all attend Manifest 2023?
closes Sep 25
No, Scott Alexander won’t
No, Aella won’t
No, Destiny won’t
No, Robert Miles won’t
No, multiple won’t (or the conference will be cancelled)

The website for Manifest 2023 (Manifold's planned September conference in Berkeley) lists Scott Alexander, Aella, Destiny, and Robert Miles ("...and more") under "Speakers & Guests of Honor." [UPDATE: It no longer lists Scott.] Will each of them actually show up?

For this market, a virtual appearance counts as long as it's live (not pre-recorded).

I hope to attend the conference to verify, but otherwise I'll get info from people who were there.

In other words, resolves like the embedded market, but without the "as some part of the official program" part. So any kind of appearance during the conference would count.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.   

Get Ṁ500 play money

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Sort by:
Dilonbought Ṁ50 ofNo, Scott Alexander ... NO
Joshua avatar

@Dilon are you just making a leap from Scott logging on to the site tonight?

2 replies
Frogswap avatar
Frogswapbought Ṁ40 of No, Scott Alexander ... NO
Joshua avatar
Joshuabought Ṁ100 of Yes YES


Sailfish avatar
Sailfishbought Ṁ30 of No, Destiny won’t NO

Destiny will travel west to California to attend Manifest in another washout victory for nominative determinism.

1 reply
Sailfish avatar

Similarly, it should be obvious that Alexander will not manage to make it to the Pacific ocean, despite great effort.

Conflux avatar
Confluxbought Ṁ40 of Yes YES
  • “yes” on this market should be above “yes” on the embedded market

  • is there some confirmation somewhere that Scott is out for sure?

14 replies
Joshua avatar

Scott said "less than 50-50" in a recent open thread on ACX.

Conflux avatar

@Joshua so manifold is interpreting <50 as ~10??

Joshua avatar
Joshuabought Ṁ10 of Yes YES

Possibility he's said more elsewhere I haven't seen... but yeah that's why I'm buying yes 😅

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwards

@Joshua less than 50/50 is what you say when you feel bad saying no.

Conflux avatar
Confluxbought Ṁ5 of No, Destiny won’t YES

@BTE yes but:

  • Scott has some commitment to calibration

  • I think he wants to come but has some medical procedure, so if he has an option to reschedule the procedure then he’d probably do that

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwards

@Conflux Meh, the medical procedure thing is weird. did he schedule it after telling the manifold team when he would be available because it seems like this event being scheduled so quick after first being announced was probably due to supposed availability of desired featured guests. Scott Alexander was the top billed featured guest so EXTREMELY unlikely they didn't check his schedule before choosing date. This should make you worried about Scott's health, or suspect of this being a real excuse instead of just a rumor started to help save face for Scott.

Shai avatar

@BTE I find it hard to believe that Scott would give a dishonest probability when talking about his chance of attending the "assign accurate probabilities to events" conference.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwards

@Shai Less than 50/50 can mean zero.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwards

@Shai And isn't Scott like notoriously mysterious??? Seems to me he enjoys maintaining his pseudo-anonymity.

Conflux avatar
Confluxbought Ṁ20 of Yes YES

@BTE He goes to ACX meetups

Joshua avatar

This market also counts virtual appearances, which I feel like is also possible.

Conflux avatar

@Joshua Yep. (Full disclosure: This aspect of the resolution criteria might not have been super well-publicized, since it referenced the embedded market and I just now copied the info over to be more easily readable. However, virtual appearances have always counted for this pair of markets.)

LightLawliet avatar
Light Lawliet

@Conflux Why should it be higher?

Conflux avatar

@LightLawliet What is “it” referring to here?

pav avatar
Paweł Sysiak

What’s the link to the conference?

1 reply
Aella ​bought Ṁ20 ofYes YES
Conflux avatar

@Aella omg

2 replies
Conflux avatar

@Conflux now just waiting on Scott, Destiny, and Robert to confirm their participation via bet!!

saulmunn avatar
Saul Munn

@Conflux love the idea of confirming participation via bet haha!