Will Emmett Shear attend Manifest 2025?
28
100Ṁ1733Jun 8
94%
chance
6
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question will resolve to YES if Emmett attends Manifest 2025 at Lighthaven in person, and NO otherwise. Resolution is based on my judgement as to whether I attended or not, given that I'm Emmett.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Reference classes:
Emmett has been to 50% of previous Manifests -- was at 2023, not 2024. (33% if you include minifest 2024)
I'd guess about 1-2 speakers out of the ~30 in Emmett's reference class, cancelled last minute in 2024
Emmett himself claimed 80% just now on Twitter
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