He has the advantage of being able to consult his forecast, but sometimes he has hot takes that contradict it. Will those takes be vindicated?
In 2022, Nate wrote an article called "Why I'm Telling My Friends That The Senate Is A Toss-Up" (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-senate-is-a-toss-up/ ) when his forecast showed Democrats leading, but his forecast seems to be turning out more correct.
In 2020, Nate sent this tweet after the election, which I think captures the subject of this market pretty well:
Anyway, this is another market with subjective resolution criteria - sorry - but I'll do my best to resolve in good faith. It would have resolved NO for the 2020 and 2022 elections, since his forecast was better than his own personal opinions.
1,000
3.00In his latest article, he states that while his forecast is closer than a coinflip, applying the 15 Clarifying Questions for Close Elections brings Harris's win chance to around 52%. Anyone find any other forecast-contradicting hot takes from Nate? Otherwise this market is tentatively a proxy for "Will Harris win"
On the other hand, he did write this article about his gut saying Trump, and he now seems to be taking more credit for having a Trump gut
@Conflux what if Nate doesn't give a personal take that's different from the model forecast? Does this resolve NO or N/A?
