Will Nate Silver out-predict his forecast in the 2024 election?

️ Politics 🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election Nate Silver

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He has the advantage of being able to consult his forecast, but sometimes he has hot takes that contradict it. Will those takes be vindicated?

In 2022, Nate wrote an article called "Why I'm Telling My Friends That The Senate Is A Toss-Up" (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-senate-is-a-toss-up/ ) when his forecast showed Democrats leading, but his forecast seems to be turning out more correct.

In 2020, Nate sent this tweet after the election, which I think captures the subject of this market pretty well:

Anyway, this is another market with subjective resolution criteria - sorry - but I'll do my best to resolve in good faith. It would have resolved NO for the 2020 and 2022 elections, since his forecast was better than his own personal opinions.

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@Conflux what if Nate doesn't give a personal take that's different from the model forecast? Does this resolve NO or N/A?

No personal takes at all? That doesn’t sound very Nate-like… I feel like he’s already given some good ones (definitely that Biden’s percentage was too high before he dropped out, though that’s hard to really test).

It’d be a NO, in your scenario, if it somehow came to pass.

Sometimes he does say that he doesn't have any factors that aren't in the model.

It doesn’t have to be about the topline - could be any sort of result that feels a smidge off

predicts NO

What happens if Nate Silver doesn't release a model forecast? That's possible now that he's left FiveThirtyEight.

predicts YES

@Gabrielle I’ll resolve N/A, I think

hmm... sure, just so long as his revealing of his forecasts don't have any significantly causal effects in and of themselves

finally an "ancient" market

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