Who will be elected US Senator from California in 2024 for Dianne Feinstein’s (now Laphonza Butler’s) seat?
29
334
1.2K
Nov 9
98%
Adam Schiff

Resolves when the race is projected by a major news network or Dave Wasserman. Re-resolves if this projection is incorrect.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:

I guess the calculus here is that Porter is about 50% likely to make the general (while Schiff almost certainly will), and she's about 40% likely to win that against Schiff if she qualifies, which seems about right to me. (On the other hand, if Garvey qualifies instead of Porter, Schiff will easily win.)

@robm just for context, the Porter and Schiff campaigns are both sending emails saying he's a big deal. BS for fundraising, I'm sure, but I'd like to see if he's a 0.2% deal, or a 2% deal.

https://politicalemails.org/messages/1286350

https://politicalemails.org/messages/1286456

@robm Done. I also changed the settings so anyone can add answers

bought Ṁ10 of Barbara Lee YES

Please add Lateefah Simon and Shirley Weber

bought Ṁ80 of Shirley Weber NO
bought Ṁ10 of Other YES

I love the use of Dave Wasserman as a resolution criteria.

@Joshua I’ve still never seen an example of Dave Wasserman having seen enough and being wrong! Something I can’t say about the networks :)

Same!