Sometimes Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict), of the Cook Political Report, tweets "I've seen enough", and projects the result of an election based on the returns at that time (example, example, example), typically before major news networks.
"I've seen enough" has great accuracy. In fact, from cursory searching, I don't know of any examples where he's predicted wrong. However, I feel like they probably exist?
This market resolves in a week, and resolves YES if I've been made aware of any instance when Dave Wasserman tweeted "I've seen enough" but was wrong. It resolves NO otherwise. I will not be doing any more independent research, and am really hoping someone on this market links me to examples or, even better, a helpful analysis of his hit rate. In addition to profits, I may award tips for sufficiently helpful links!