The 538 and Economist models have produced some weird outputs that don't gibe with conventional wisdom. When Nate Silver releases his model soon (it'll be behind a paywall, but I'm a subscriber so I'll be able to see it), will any of them be corroborated?
NOTE: If the election changes substantially between now and the Silver model release, such that Manifold's chances of one or more of these things spikes to the point where it is the conventional wisdom, I may N/A the answer at my discretion.
I will resolve to a probability if one of these things is not a direct output of the Silver model, based on my best probability estimate of what it would say.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
The model gives:
Trump a 65.7% chance of winning
Biden a 9.9% chance of winning Florida
Biden a 5.9% chance of winning Texas
North Carolina 4% chance of being the tipping point place, which is in 6th place
I'm not sure about the 350 electoral votes one, but from eyeballing it I think it probably resolves no