DEFINITION

Resolves to the city where I most sleep the most nights during the month of October. The market resolves equally among tied cities.

HISTORY

For context, this definition would have resolved as follows:

• "Menlo Park, CA" (where my parents live) for the vast majority of my childhood, as well as summer / break periods by default, with some exceptions

  • "Portland, OR" for July 2018 at sleepaway camp

  • "St. Louis, MO" for July 2025 as an Epsilon Camp counselor

  • "Ardsley, NY" for August 2025 when I slept in around 9 different cities

  • "Berkeley, CA" for July and August 2026 when I worked at MIRI

• "Stanford, CA" for most of my college months, excepting breaks

• After declaring my leave of absence from Stanford, my life is weirder

  • "Menlo Park, CA" for September and October 2026, when I lived at home while also helping run SAGA, Stanford's AI safety club

RATIONALES FOR DIFFERENT OPTIONS

Berkeley, CA: Home to MIRI and Constellation, most AI safety jobs that I'm considering are based here. I'd probably like to move back if I got one, though I'm not 100% sure who I'd live with.

Washington, DC: Policy is currently my top sub-area of AI safety, and this feels like an important place to live for that. I'm currently applying to IAPS which points that direction.

Menlo Park, CA: This is the status quo. It captures worlds where I'm a bum doing nothing, worlds where I go back to Stanford but decide I don't want to live in dorms, worlds where my Berkeley housing situation is really unclear so I end up commuting to a job there, and worlds where I do a lot of random things in February but use it as a home base.

Stanford, CA: This is a bet on me deciding my leave of absence is too weird/unsuccessful and I should just go back to college and be normal. My plan is to take a full gap year though at least.

San Francisco, CA: I am increasingly disinterested in living in SF, but it is a place where a lot happens, and it's centrally located between Stanford and Berkeley. Seems unlikely.

Other: I would consider relocating elsewhere for impactful job opportunities or interesting life opportunities.

See previous considerations:
/Conflux/where-will-i-live-in-october-2026

After initializing market probabilities that feel somewhat reasonable, I will not bet.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.