DEFINITION

Resolves to the city where I most sleep the most nights during the month of October. The market resolves equally among tied cities.

HISTORY

For context, this definition would have resolved "Menlo Park, CA" (where my parents live) for the vast majority of my childhood, and "Stanford, CA" for most of my college months. I strongly expect it to resolve "Berkeley, CA" for July and August 2026, where I have plans to sublet for my MIRI job.

This definition does not always align with where I actually live. It would have resolved "Portland, OR" during July 2018 when I was at sleepaway camp, probably "St. Louis, MO" in July 2025 (Epsilon Camp counselor), and I think "Ardsley, NY" during August 2025 (when I slept in like 9 different cities). By contrast, even though I travelled a lot in December 2025 (including England, New York, and Puerto Rico) it would have resolved "Menlo Park, CA". Feel free to ask me about other months.

I selected October 2026 because it's the first full month that would be fall quarter.

RATIONALES FOR DIFFERENT OPTIONS

Berkeley, CA: I'll be living there this summer. It's home to the biggest AI safety and rationalist community. I have lots of friends there, and my friend count will spike when UC Berkeley comes back in session. I could probably keep subletting the same place, and maybe I'll fall in love with it or get another job in AI safety!

Stanford, CA: I go to college here; I'm currently a sophomore. I'm fairly strongly leaning toward taking a gap year to do other things with my life, but I've still filled out a campus housing application and stuff. This option is basically the scenario where I decide not to take fall quarter off after all.

Menlo Park, CA: My parents live here, so I fortunately always have it available. I have been elected co-president of Stanford AI Alignment, which I can do from other parts of the Bay, but Menlo Park is super close to Stanford so it'd be convenient if I wanted to spend a lot of time doing SAIA stuff or visiting my friends at Stanford, but not actually being a student. I like my parents, but I would rather try living somewhere else though. Oh, this option might also resolve YES if I travel a lot but use this as a home base.

San Francisco, CA: I realized last night that this might be the Goldilocks option?? The Stanford-Berkeley commute is terrible, but I feel like SF-Stanford and SF-Berkeley are okay, especially if I lived near Caltrain and BART. SF will be the last city in the Bay Area that I might seriously want to live in that I haven't lived in yet, so it'd be fun to try. I have some friends I would potentially live with but nothing locked down.

Other: I don't have a solid plan for my gap year, and I would be willing to live or travel somewhere else. Salient cities to me are Washington, DC (if I did something in governance, or randomly decided to do Stanford in Washington), New York, NY or suburbs (I have a lot of family there, and it satisfies my desire to live in a big urban place), and Boston / Cambridge, MA (I have a lot of friends there). I guess there's also the chance of other Bay Area cities, like maybe I want to live in Berkeley but the place I find is in Oakland instead?? Feel free to add some if you want to bet on them; currently I'd assign them single-digit probabilities.

I PROMISE NOT TO BET

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.