Will I receive "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies: Why Superhuman AI Would Kill Us All" on time at release?
25
350Ṁ2018
resolved Sep 17
Resolved
NO

Resolution criteria

I preordered the paperback version of "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies: Why Superhuman AI Would Kill Us All" by Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares on amazon.de. This market will resolve to "Yes" if I receive the book on or before its official release date of September 16, 2025. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

https://ifanyonebuildsit.com/

  • Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The outcome is dependent on the entire delivery chain (publisher, seller, courier). The market will resolve to Yes even if home delivery fails, as long as the creator is able to retrieve the book from a pickup point on September 16, 2025.

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I can see on the Amazon homepage a tab which is called "noch nicht versandt" -> "not shipped yet". The book is the only item listed there. There is no reason given why it hasn't shipped yet and when I click on the book it tells me that it is "currently not available". This is a giant failure and I will now cancel my order and probably tomorrow go to a good old brick-and-mortar-store to get my book of the year.

I am actually really happy that I created this question - this way I can at least share my frustration with someone else! I will now resolve this as No

@CommanderKeen Das klingt echt frustrierend.

@4fa Zum Glück habe ich es wie Seneca gehalten und von Anfang an ganz niedrige Erwartungen gehabt. So wird man weniger enttäuscht ^^

Naja, im Buchladen stöbern kann ja auch ganz nett sein, und Amazon wollte ich eigentlich sowieso kein Geld mehr geben.

@CommanderKeen I feel you! But still I hope it's sold out in Germany and the overseas orders count towards the US bestseller lists.

@CommanderKeen Seneca ist bei mir ne Weile her, bestimmt 18 Jahre nicht mehr gelesen. 😆

Ja, im Buchladen stöbern und Amazon kein Geld mehr geben klingt beides gut!

Small update:

On the Amazon homepage the status has changed to: "delivered", but that is not true. I have neither had the courier ring the bell nor did they put the book in my mailbox. I will check the mailbox again later, maybe they changed the status before even trying to deliver. Who knows?

I can't even see a way to report this abysmal failure to Amazon. Looks like for them this topic is concluded. So, if the book isn't in the mailbox later, I will try to somehow find a way to contact Amazon support. For now this looks really bad

@CommanderKeen ok,i did some wild clicking around on the homepage, it looks like i misunderstood the current status message "Bestellung erhalten". I interpreted that as me having received the order, but it actually means that Amazon has received the order and nothing else. It looks like I will get no information on where the package currently is, but it could still be discovered today!

bought Ṁ100 NO

@CommanderKeen Interesting. While my paperback had arrived early, there's still no news on my two hardcovers which were part of the same preorder.

I preordered one paperback and two hardcovers and the paperback appeared at my doorstep today.

Wow, maybe they messed up and sent it too early? In any case, if I also get the book before the 16th, I will immediately resolve this as YES

@CommanderKeen Are you saying I should buy Yes, quickly read it and immediatelly send it over to you? I'm afraid the market isn't subsidized enough for that trickery 😜

@Primer Sounds like a great plan ^^

(Retracted)

So this isn't about the publisher or shop sending it on time, but rather stuff downstream of that, like the courier making a mistake or theft?

@WilliamGunn It's about the whole chain, the end result. I have never had something stolen but I have had couriers make mistakes and others just don't ring. Of course, in the unlikely case that the publisher messes up, this would also resolve to no. If, on the other hand, the courier does not ring but I am able to get the book from some pickup point in the evening, this would resolve to yes.

@CommanderKeen If there are issues with the delivery, how much effort do you expect to put into fixing them promptly (such as by going to a pickup point that evening)?

@EvanDaniel As I have said, I would do that. I am not sure what else I could possibly do on that same day?

I will most probably be working from home on that day. I live in the city center and have already had positive and negative experiences with Amazon delieveries at this address.

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