Will I receive "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies: Why Superhuman AI Would Kill Us All" on time at release?

350Ṁ289

Sep 17

61%

chance

ALL

Resolution criteria

I preordered the paperback version of "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies: Why Superhuman AI Would Kill Us All" by Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares on amazon.de. This market will resolve to "Yes" if I receive the book on or before its official release date of September 16, 2025. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

https://ifanyonebuildsit.com/

Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The outcome is dependent on the entire delivery chain (publisher, seller, courier). The market will resolve to Yes even if home delivery fails, as long as the creator is able to retrieve the book from a pickup point on September 16, 2025.

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Eliezer Yudkowsky

If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies

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I preordered one paperback and two hardcovers at osiander.de and the paperback appeared at my doorstep today.

Wow, maybe they messed up and sent it too early? In any case, if I also get the book before the 16th, I will immediately resolve this as YES

@CommanderKeen Are you saying I should buy Yes, quickly read it and immediatelly send it over to you? I'm afraid the market isn't subsidized enough for that trickery 😜

So this isn't about the publisher or shop sending it on time, but rather stuff downstream of that, like the courier making a mistake or theft?

@WilliamGunn It's about the whole chain, the end result. I have never had something stolen but I have had couriers make mistakes and others just don't ring. Of course, in the unlikely case that the publisher messes up, this would also resolve to no. If, on the other hand, the courier does not ring but I am able to get the book from some pickup point in the evening, this would resolve to yes.

@CommanderKeen If there are issues with the delivery, how much effort do you expect to put into fixing them promptly (such as by going to a pickup point that evening)?

@EvanDaniel As I have said, I would do that. I am not sure what else I could possibly do on that same day?

I will most probably be working from home on that day. I live in the city center and have already had positive and negative experiences with Amazon delieveries at this address.