
Will I receive "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies: Why Superhuman AI Would Kill Us All" on time at release?
9
350Ṁ213Sep 17
66%
chance
3
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolution criteria
I preordered the paperback version of "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies: Why Superhuman AI Would Kill Us All" by Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares on amazon.de. This market will resolve to "Yes" if I receive the book on or before its official release date of September 16, 2025. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The outcome is dependent on the entire delivery chain (publisher, seller, courier). The market will resolve to Yes even if home delivery fails, as long as the creator is able to retrieve the book from a pickup point on September 16, 2025.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Bostrom's "Superintelligence" exceed its current popularity peak before 2028?
15% chance
Will Neal Stephenson publish a novel in which AI is a crucial plot element by the end of 2026?
11% chance
Will I be able to get an AI to play Inflection Point with me before the end of 2035?
75% chance
Will a book claimed to be written by an AI make the NYT best seller list before the end of 2025?
15% chance
Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?
58% chance
Will I be able to get an AI to play Inflection Point with me before the end of 2025?
23% chance
Front Cover (US) of 'If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies' changes before release?
14% chance
Will the "Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?" market be above 5% on January 1, 2029 12:00AM EST?
5% chance
Will there be a blockbuster movie in the US before the end of 2025 that is acknowledged as written by AI
10% chance
Will any best-selling work of fiction be written entirely by an AI by April of 2028?
41% chance