The "expiration" of a market is defined as one of the following:
If the creator specifically commits to resolving a market early when certain conditions are met and such conditions are in fact met (based on credible evidence), then the expiration is when someone first notes this in the comments of the market (for example, linking to a relevant news article, stating that the conditions have been met, or simply remarking "this can resolve now" when the implication is clear).
Note that there must be a specific commitment to resolve early, as I consider it a valid choice to let the market remain open for the full duration.
If the creator specifically commits to resolving a market by specific time, then the expiration is that time.
If market resolution is based on a specific information source, then the expiration is when that source is made available.
"Specific" here refers to something on the level of "Annual Report on ABC by DEF Organization" (a specific publication) or "the homepages of X News, Y Daily, and Z Times" (specific news organizations), but not simply "news reports."
If the market concerns events that occur within a specific time period, then the expiration of the market is the end of that time period.
In all other cases, the expiration is the close time of the market.
A market is considered "stale" if it is unresolved and it has been at least 30 days since its expiration, except if there remain significant doubts about how to resolve it (preferably, but not necessarily, noted in the comments).
If, at 00:00 UTC on February 1, 2024, if there are any shares in my portfolio in stale markets, then this market resolves to YES. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
I will use my own judgment in close cases. As the date approaches, I will post comments with links to markets that I consider stale if they remain unresolved, and I will update the description with the full list of markets I will consider.
I will not trade in this market.
Markets to be considered:
Related questions
๐ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน76 | |
| 2 | แน24 | |
| 3 | แน14 | |
| 4 | แน6 | |
| 5 | แน4 |
@SirCryptomind the full list is in the description. All of them are resolved and I don't expect to add any more. So this is a very likely NO resolution.
at the end of January 2024
It's possible they may buy shares in a stale market before then. By their definition, stale markets can be open for trading.
Current candidates:
Candidates currently having "significant doubts" about how to resolve:
@CollectedOverSpread The question regarding cloud-based password management services will be removed from the list. The creator has committed to resolving it on May Day (May 1) 2024, so that is the expiration. I didn't notice this when I was compiling the list.
