Will another long-mysterious disease turn out to have been caused by a Virus all along before 2024?
closes 2024

Epstein-Bar has recently been very credibly fingered as the leading cause of Multiple Sclerosis: https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/epstein-barr-virus-may-be-leading-cause-of-multiple-sclerosis/

Will we discover that some other mysterious disease of unknown origin is caused by a Virus?

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LachlanMunro avatar
Lachlan Munrobought Ṁ100 of YES
LarsDoucet avatar
Lars Doucetbought Ṁ250 of YES

@LachlanMunro Indeed! Very interesting evidence. Not strong enough for proof yet though.

SachitDaniel avatar
Sachit Daniel

What would be the standard for resolution? Will a correlation strong enough to be published in a peer reviewed journal be enough? I.e. just enough to raise our priors significantly, but not enough to be a slam dunk.

To rephrase: Do we want (a) strongly raising our priors but not super conclusive (like our evidence for herpesviridae and Alzheimer's) OR something that is very conclusive (like our evidence for cervical cancer, kaposis sarcoma)

1) EFFECT SIZE: how strong should the effect size correlation coefficient be?

2) STATISTICAL CONFIDENCE:how confident should the p value be

3 METHODOLOGICAL CONFIDENCE: Would you consider some of these too weak?

Self reported history of viral infection vs Disease correlation

IgG vs Disease correlation

IgM:IgG Disease correlation

Viral RNA expression in tissue for viruses that get embedded long term (e.g. herpesviridae/ paplioma viruses?)

LarsDoucet avatar
Lars Doucetis predicting YES at 48%

@SachitDaniel Anything as strong as the evidence for Epstein Bar & MS

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