Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?

Question

Law enforcement officials in New York are preparing for the possibility that former President Donald Trump could be indicted in the coming weeks and appear in a Manhattan courtroom in an investigation examining hush money paid to women who alleged sexual encounters with him. This development may lead to civil unrest in the United States, particularly among Trump's supporters who view this as a politically motivated attack on the former president.

In the past, the United States has experienced incidents of civil unrest and large-scale rioting, such as the 1992 Los Angeles riots and the mass civil unrest in response to the killing of George Floyd in 2020. It is uncertain whether the potential indictment and court appearance of former President Trump could trigger a similar scale of civil unrest.

For the purposes of this question, "large-scale rioting" is defined as an event of rioting or civil unrest in which any of the following conditions are met:

At least 25 people die directly due to violence, either due to the actions of rioters or other civilians, or police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.

At least 5,000 people are arrested by police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.

These counts will be cumulative from question open date to resolution date. Deaths and arrests need not be from a single instance of unrest and instead can be from many.

For deaths to count toward the overall death toll, the deaths have to occur within the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest; deaths from a generic mass shooting or a series of homicides that occur outside of the context of a riot shouldn't count towards the 25. Further, deaths that occur due to medical emergencies that aren't related to rioting or unrest do not count (for example, someone dying of a heart attack while in a crowd of rioters). Suicides also do not count.

Arrests must be made in the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest. Arrests made for unrelated crimes during the civil unrest period will not be counted towards the 5,000.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Apr 16, 2023 by Manifold Markets prediction market.