Resolution Criteria

The 120th Congress will be sworn in in early January 2027 following the November 3, 2026 House elections. The market resolves based on which party holds a majority of seats in the House of Representatives when the 120th Congress convenes. 218 seats are needed for a majority. Resolution will be determined by official House records at house.gov.

Background

Republicans currently hold a 220-215 majority in the House. Democrats need to gain a net of three districts to win a majority, while Republicans can lose no more than two districts to retain a majority. The president's party almost always loses ground in midterm elections, and Republicans hold only 220 seats—just two more than the minimum needed for a majority—making the probability that Republicans will lose control of the House very high barring unforeseeable game-changing events.

Considerations

Partisan redistricting efforts are underway, with Republicans likely to gain seats in Texas, North Carolina, Missouri and Ohio, while Democrats are looking to California and Utah to pick up ground. Control of Congress in 2026 is expected to hinge on a small group of competitive Senate contests and House districts sensitive to national trends.