Resolution Criteria

Senators elected in the November 3, 2026 elections will begin their six-year terms on January 3, 2027, marking the start of the 120th Congress. The market resolves based on which party holds a majority of Senate seats on that date. Senate control requires 51 seats or 50 seats with control of the vice presidency. Resolution can be verified via official Senate records at senate.gov.

Background

As a result of the 2024 general elections, Republicans won a 53-45 majority in the Senate, with two independents caucusing with the Democrats. Thirty-five of the 100 seats are up for election in 2026, with Democrats controlling 13 and Republicans controlling 20 of the 33 regularly scheduled seats. Democrats need to gain a net of four seats to win a majority in the chamber, while Republicans can lose no more than two seats to retain a majority.

Considerations

Democrats are defending two seats in states won by Donald Trump in 2024: Michigan and Georgia. The fight for the Senate centers on four crucial states: Maine, North Carolina, Michigan and Georgia. Midterms usually provide fertile ground for the party out of the White House, though Republicans remain confident they will hold onto the Senate.