Resolution criteria

Elections will be held on November 3, 2026, with winners taking office on January 3, 2027. Resolution will be determined by which party holds a majority in both chambers of Congress after the 2026 midterm elections:

• House: Republicans currently hold a 220-215 majority. Democrats need to gain a net of three districts to win a majority, while Republicans can lose no more than two districts to retain control.

• Senate: Republicans hold a 53-45 majority. Democrats need to gain a net of four seats to win a majority, while Republicans can lose no more than two seats to retain control.

"Controls Congress" means a single party holds majorities in both the House and Senate. Results will be verified via official election results from the House Clerk and Senate.

Background

The president's party almost always loses ground in the midterm election following his victory. Barring unforeseeable game-changing events, the probability that Republicans will lose control of the House is very high. However, Democrats would have to achieve a net gain of four seats to take over control of the Senate, which is not impossible but a daunting challenge.

A record number of House members and senators have announced they are not running for reelection—56 out of 535, or more than 10%, with 44 House incumbents not seeking reelection (25 Republicans and 19 Democrats).

Considerations

Control of Congress in 2026 is expected to hinge on a small group of competitive Senate contests and House districts sensitive to national trends. Maps have changed in several states due to legal challenges and partisan redistricting, including California eliminating five Republican districts and Texas redrawing its map.