Resolution criteria

Congress control will be determined by the results of elections held on November 7, 2028, when 34 Senate seats and all 435 House seats are up for election. The market resolves based on which party holds majorities in both chambers of the 121st Congress beginning January 3, 2029.

Republican control: Republicans hold majorities in both the Senate (51+ seats) and House (218+ seats).

Democratic control: Democrats hold majorities in both the Senate (51+ seats) and House (218+ seats).

Another party control: A party other than Republican or Democratic holds majorities in both chambers, or no single party controls both chambers.

Resolution sources: Senate results, House results, Ballotpedia 2028 Congress elections

Background

Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority following the 2024 elections, having gained four seats in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, while Democrats gained one seat in Arizona. In 2028, 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election, currently consisting of 19 Republicans and 15 Democrats. Republicans currently control the Senate, House, and presidency following the 2024 elections.

Considerations

Control of Congress requires majorities in both chambers. A split outcome—where one party controls the Senate and another controls the House—resolves as "Another party control." Third parties have never held a majority in either chamber of Congress in the modern era, making this outcome highly unlikely but technically possible under the market's definition.

This description was generated by AI.