Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if President Donald Trump publicly announces the firing or termination of any member of his Cabinet (defined below) between April 3, 2026, and May 4, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.

• Definition of Cabinet: For this market, "Cabinet member" refers to the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as Cabinet-level officials, including the Vice President, White House Chief of Staff, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Director of National Intelligence, Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, U.S. Trade Representative, Administrator of the Small Business Administration, and the Ambassador to the United Nations.

• Exclusions: Acting Cabinet members are not considered members of the Cabinet for the purpose of this market.

• Verification: An announcement is considered official if made via President Trump’s personal or official social media accounts, in a video or audio format, or via direct, attributed quotes in reputable news reporting (e.g., AP, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post).

• Resolution: If a resignation is requested by the President and the individual subsequently leaves their post, this counts as a firing. If a departure is announced before May 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to YES, even if the individual remains in the position for a transition period.

Background

President Trump has recently made two high-profile personnel changes within his Cabinet. On March 5, 2026, he announced the firing of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, and on April 2, 2026, he announced the removal of Attorney General Pam Bondi. These departures mark the first Cabinet-level changes of his second term. Traders should monitor official White House announcements and major news outlets for any further personnel decisions regarding the remaining Cabinet members.

This description was generated by AI.