Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if Trump announces a new cabinet member (including replacements for existing positions) before 1 July 2026. An announcement is defined as a public statement by Trump or his official representatives confirming a nomination or appointment to a cabinet or cabinet-level position. Resolution sources include official White House announcements, press releases, and major news outlets reporting on confirmed announcements. The market resolves NO if no new cabinet member is announced by 23:59 UTC on 30 June 2026.

Background

As of March 6, 2026, Trump removed Kristi Noem as secretary of Homeland Security and nominated Markwayne Mullin to take the position. As of March 6, 2026, 21 Cabinet members subject to Senate approval had been confirmed, with one awaiting confirmation. Cabinet positions include the 15 executive department heads plus cabinet-level positions such as the CIA director, EPA administrator, and U.S. trade representative.