Will Starship land on legs on Earth the first time it's recovered from orbit?

Question

They landed on legs for the suborbital hops. They will probably land on legs on the moon and on Mars. But for Earth recovery the plan is to be caught by chopsticks. Will we see them change that plan and return to landing legs?

Only counts if it's returning from orbit, that way I hope to skip any attempts for testing moon landing legs.

Resolves Yes if Starship lands on legs after returning from orbit.

Resolves No the first time Starship successfully gets caught by the chopsticks without blowing up or other major issues. Minor tile damage or something like that is fine.

This is only about the second stage, booster doesn't matter.

Market will be extended as needed.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 1% chance (14 traders, as of Dec 11, 2025).