This is global average temperature. Data is in no smoothing column at
(or such updated location for this Gistemp v4 LOTI global data)
Resolution
If the anomaly versus 1951 to 1980 base period per gistemp LOTI is reported as 1.15C or higher this claim resolves to 100%
If the anomaly versus 1951 to 1980 base period per gistemp LOTI is reported as 1.05C or lower this claim resolves to 0%
If 1.06C claims resolves to 10% and so on.
For those who want to bet more aggressively on the anomaly being quite high (1.17+) or not that high, I made a similar, alternative market. https://manifold.markets/aenews/will-the-2023-nasa-gistemp-temperat
After August data, Berkeley Earth's projection looks maybe 0.13 degrees higher than the previous warmest year on record, which is 1.02 in GISTEMP, so taking that at face value would give an estimate of 1.15, i.e. a full payout with some uncertainty around it. Berkeley Earth mentioned some concerns about the past months being unusual, which might make their model produce an overestimate, and I think Berkeley Earth is also expected to measure a slightly larger gap between 2023 and 2016 than GISTEMP. On the other hand, September has been extremely hot so far. On the whole, the market looks undervalued to me.
@StevenK I see extremely large discrepancies with Berkley earth's [I meant climate reanalyzer] data and the NASA data (up to .075C for a given year). anyone else analyzed this? Maybe I'm doing something wrong.
@Will58c3 Berkeley Earth has lower estimates for 19th century temperatures, so while differences between datasets don't matter that much for "warmest on record" type questions, they matter a lot for "temperature increase relative to pre-industrial" type questions; see https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/will-2023-be-the-first-year-above
@StevenK I don't think that's quite right. If you look at NASA's data they report 2016 was the same temperature as 2022. If you look at the climate reanalyzer data they find a .071 C degree difference with 2016 being the hotter year. But you can find the GISTEMPs estimates for prior months in 2023.
@Will58c3 A diff of 0.071 is within the margin of error of about 0.1C so such a diff is to be expected.
@ChristopherRandles Sure, but it's still a very significant differences for purposes of this market, right? The warmest year markets are done though imo.
Sorry but I don't quite understand how this market works. You can resolve it to a percentage between 0 and 100%?
@Will58c3 I see, I misinterpreted you as referring to Berkeley Earth giving higher anomalies than other sources. Where does the reanalyzer give annual data? I was going by the first graph here, which shows different datasets as having nearly the same relative temperatures of different years, up to about 0.01 degrees or sometimes 0.02.
@StevenK my bad I i meant to refer to climate reanalyzer all along. you can download the climate reanalyzer data as a json file and import into excel.
@Will58c3 This market works entirly on gistemp anomaly. If the anomaly for the year is 1.06 then the claim resolves at 10%.
If the anomaly for the year is 1.07 then it resolves at 20%
and so on.
So far through July & August the anomaly is 1.03 and 1.06 but with really high recent temperatures and El Nino this is likely to continue to increase.
Bringing Berkeley temperatures or climate reanalyzer satellite temperatures into it may be more of a distraction and add too much uncertain differences into it so that such analysis isn't very useful or maybe it still gives a edge for betting purposes. Up to you to decide.
@ChristopherRandles I think Berkeley Earth's projection is still very informative even though it needs to be adjusted a small amount.
@Will58c3 I see - yes, this page does show a much larger difference between 2016 and 2020, and I don't know what to make of that. (edit: sorry, I was looking at 2019, not 2020; but it turns out you said 2022, so I'm confused, because NASA shows 2016 as much warmer than 2022, and the reanalyzer doesn't seem to have data for 2020 or 2022)
@ChristopherRandles I just went down the rabbit hole for the hottest month ever market
Isn't the current anomaly 1.06 C or =(1.24+1.19+1.08+0.93+1+1.2+0.97+0.87)/8 ? https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/graph_data/Monthly_Mean_Global_Surface_Temperature/graph.txt
@Will58c3 I did not expect such a gap. Interestingly for comparing the difference between 2023 v 2016, the climate reanalyzer data (CRF) and NASA data (GISTEMP) are fairly close..
@StevenK Sorry, I need to be more careful and proofread (keep confusing 2020 and 2022). Based on the JSON data from I'm finding a .05C difference between 2020 and 2016 average temp (see https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world ). I'm using that data because to my knowledge it's the only one that updates daily.
The annual data you're looking at seems different and based on a reanalysis.
@KongoLandwalker yes means resolves to. I'll change it
Hope that is OK (don't really want to use resolve in title)