2050 Global Temperature Anomaly X Wheat Price

Mini

Ṁ130

2051

ALL

25%

1.5<GTE<2, wheat > $7/bushel

19%

1.5<GTE<2, wheat < $7/bushel

GTE<1.5, wheat > $7/bushel

GTE<1.5, wheat < $7/bushel

20%

GTE>2, wheat > $7/bushel

20%

GTE>2, wheat < $7/bushel

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Resolution prices will come from the last trading day of 2050. Wheat price is adjusted for inflation.

Data source for wheat (quoted in US cents per bushel)
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ZWW00:CBOT?sa=X&window=MAX
Data source for GTA (1951-1980 baseline) (called GTE in the options because of a typo) we'll use a 3-year rolling average of NASA data to make it less noisy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record
Data source for inflation adjustment:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL
Wheat price in 2050 is multiplied by CPI_2023/CPI_2050 to convert to 2023 dollars.

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3 Comments

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Why use GTE relative to 1960-1990, rather than relative to preindustrial? I'm not particularly familiar with literature conventions, but it seems that the typical "1.5 C" and "2 C" goals/thresholds people discuss are relative to pre-industrial levels.

@ArunJohnson oops! I'm glad you caught that before anybody but me bet on this market, so I'll change it.

@JonathanRay I'm referring to the wiki article which is using 1951-1980 as the baseline. I've decided to go with that. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record

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