2050 Global Temperature Anomaly X Wheat Price
2
190Ṁ1302051
25%
1.5<GTE<2, wheat > $7/bushel
19%
1.5<GTE<2, wheat < $7/bushel
8%
GTE<1.5, wheat > $7/bushel
8%
GTE<1.5, wheat < $7/bushel
20%
GTE>2, wheat > $7/bushel
20%
GTE>2, wheat < $7/bushel
Some climate doomers think it will cause mass starvation. Consider this market a tax on that bullshit.
Resolution prices will come from the last trading day of 2050. Wheat price is adjusted for inflation.
Data source for wheat (quoted in US cents per bushel)
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ZWW00:CBOT?sa=X&window=MAX
Data source for GTA (1951-1980 baseline) (called GTE in the options because of a typo) we'll use a 3-year rolling average of NASA data to make it less noisy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record
Data source for inflation adjustment:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL
Wheat price in 2050 is multiplied by CPI_2023/CPI_2050 to convert to 2023 dollars.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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