Data is currently at
403 Forbidden
or
(or such updated location for this Gistemp v4 LOTI data)
January 2024 might show as 124 in hundredths of a degree C, this is +1.24C above the 1951-1980 base period. If it shows as 1.22 then it is in degrees i.e. 1.22C. Same logic/interpretation as this will be applied.
If the version or base period changes then I will consult with traders over what is best way for any such change to have least effect on betting positions or consider N/A if it is unclear what the sensible least effect resolution should be.
Numbers expected to be displayed to hundredth of a degree. The extra digit used here is to ensure understanding that +1.20C resolves to an exceed 1.195C option.
Resolves per first update seen by me or posted as long, as there is no reason to think data shown is significantly in error. If there is reason to think there may be an error then resolution will be delayed at least 24 hours. Minor later update should not cause a need to re-resolve.
1,000Bettors may be interested in this AUGUST vs JULY market for ERA5 below (default probability set to the prior):
Some of the EC46 runs have been shooting up significant beyond climo, but today's was extreme. Normally climo is superior except we are also well on our way to a very strong / potentially historical El Nino....
Paris getting some more warmth second week of July (July 10-11)
mean +7.5 C anomaly 1991-2020 (absolute 26.4 C) in my super ens gridded data... (max 99F, 37.2C from on accuweather).
France and Antarctic are warmer for first half of month in today's run:
(from 06Z) LOTI: 1.192 +- 0.094 C (dropped a bit with the extra day, and end of medium range dropping a bit (European heat wave a bit milder than yesterday at end of week 2)
(using old method, delta analog3, and loti3 methods (MTD doy models on super ensemble+statistical_1harm + Prophet for beyond medium range)
Ensembles dropped again today, and it appears the change is mainly from Russia, though Antarctica is cooler as well compared to yesterday.
EPS/00Z shows greater troughing over northern Russia in second week of July (more meridional jet stream), showing it persisting for most of the week, while ECM diagnostically shows it as a cutoff low.
Yesterday's run and today's superensemble run for July 11:
ECM, EPS (via tropicaltidbits) for July 10, 00Z:
