Global Average Temperature August 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)

Question

Data is currently at
csv file 
or

html

(or such updated location or updated version for this Gistemp v4 LOTI data see https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ )

January 2024 might show as 124 in hundredths of a degree C, this is +1.24C above the 1951-1980 base period. If it shows as 1.22 then it is in degrees i.e. 1.22C. Same logic/interpretation as this will be applied.

If the version or base period changes then I will consult with traders over what is best way for any such change to have least effect on betting positions or consider N/A if it is unclear what the sensible least effect resolution should be.

Numbers expected to be displayed to hundredth of a degree. The extra digit used here is to ensure understanding that +1.20C resolves to an exceed 1.195C option.

Resolves per first update seen by me or posted as long, as there is no reason to think data shown is significantly in error. If there is reason to think there may be an error then resolution will be delayed at least 24 hours. Minor later update should not cause a need to re-resolve.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, August 2026 1.345C or more, followed by August 2026 1.295C or more and less than 1.345C and August 2026 1.245C or more and less than 1.295C are most likely. See the market for live updates (5 traders, as of Aug 9, 2026).