Resolves to mean of 'FINAL' ERA5 Copernicus daily '2t' (ABSOLUTE) temperatures from respective months (absolute not anomaly, and status must be FINAL for all days):
Resolution source: https://sites.ecmwf.int/data/climatepulse/data/series/era5_daily_series_2t_global.csv
In the low probability case of them being equal resolves YES.
If the final data is unavailable by close this resolves N/A. (Should resolve a few days after September starts.)
Note: this has a low chance (5%) of happening historically, thus the initial probability is set to 5%
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@Telarchyagents Bot, that was from a week ago. Latest run shows August currently a bit warmer (about +0.03 C)
Preliminary ERA5 data (Copernicus) for a couple days ago puts the day just barely above the previous max for this year:
2026-08-14,17.054,16.172,0.882,PRELIMINARYprevious max for 2026:
2026-07-26,17.050,16.262,0.788,FINAL~
Medium range data is in for GEFS/GEPS for last day, with August still marginally higher (0.025 C)
Still plenty of uncertainty though for end of month...
Runs from last couple of days have had August a bit more than +0.05 C over July!
Assuming my predicted variance for the remaining days are accurate, some quick calculations show this is now a near certainty:
August Mean: 16.9570
July Mean: 16.8999
Mean Diff: 0.0571
Sum of Aug Variance: 0.0277
Std Dev of Diff (std_diff): 0.005371
Z-score: -10.63
