Will August 2026 be warmer than July 2026 (ERA5)?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ16Sep 7
26%
chance
1H
6H
1D
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1M
ALL
Resolves to mean of 'FINAL' ERA5 Copernicus daily '2t' (ABSOLUTE) temperatures from respective months (absolute not anomaly, and status must be FINAL for all days):
Resolution source: https://sites.ecmwf.int/data/climatepulse/data/series/era5_daily_series_2t_global.csv
In the low probability case of them being equal resolves YES.
If the final data is unavailable by close this resolves N/A. (Should resolve a few days after September starts.)
Note: this has a low chance (5%) of happening historically, thus the initial probability is set to 5%
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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