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MANIFOLD
Will August 2026 be warmer than July 2026 (ERA5)?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ16
Sep 7
26%
chance

Resolves to mean of 'FINAL' ERA5 Copernicus daily '2t' (ABSOLUTE) temperatures from respective months (absolute not anomaly, and status must be FINAL for all days):

Resolution source: https://sites.ecmwf.int/data/climatepulse/data/series/era5_daily_series_2t_global.csv

In the low probability case of them being equal resolves YES.

If the final data is unavailable by close this resolves N/A. (Should resolve a few days after September starts.)

Note: this has a low chance (5%) of happening historically, thus the initial probability is set to 5%

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