Data is currently at
csv file
or
(or such updated location or updated version for this Gistemp v4 LOTI data see https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ )
January 2024 might show as 124 in hundredths of a degree C, this is +1.24C above the 1951-1980 base period. If it shows as 1.22 then it is in degrees i.e. 1.22C. Same logic/interpretation as this will be applied.
If the version or base period changes then I will consult with traders over what is best way for any such change to have least effect on betting positions or consider N/A if it is unclear what the sensible least effect resolution should be.
Numbers expected to be displayed to hundredth of a degree. The extra digit used here is to ensure understanding that +1.20C resolves to an exceed 1.195C option.
Resolves per first update seen by me or posted as long, as there is no reason to think data shown is significantly in error. If there is reason to think there may be an error then resolution will be delayed at least 24 hours. Minor later update should not cause a need to re-resolve.
1,000Annoying to change all my code back to ERSSTv5... Models have shifted upwards for middle of month last few runs
The ERA5->LOTI models are all over the place this early on...
Point estimate (old, delta3 method, analog3 method) adjusted by prediction error mean: 1.4060, 1.2972 1.3439
Point estimate (mix), pre-adjusted by member prediction error mean: 1.3444
With GEFS/GEPS to the end of the month now in, there is still a lot of disagreement still between the 3 methods used for GISTEMP->LOTI, but best guess is with a center point prediction for a LOTI of 1.35 C at the moment.
This is about 0.05 C warmer than the August record of 1.30 C from 2024
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Point estimate (old, delta2 method, loti3 method) adjusted by prediction error mean: 1.4066, 1.3260 1.3607
Point estimate (mix), pre-adjusted by member prediction error mean: 1.3542
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ERA5 + super ensemble anomaly plot for month
Western Antarctica still looks really anomalously warm, but Antarctica as a whole has gotten warmer compared to the DOY MTD anomaly plot from 16 days ago.
Also, northern Russia (near the Kara Sea) looks anomalously warmer than usual starting from about 3 days ago and all the way in the forecast for about the next 10 days (DOY plot):
latest ECM NINO plumes out -- OND got revised upwards AGAIN, and spread is a lot tighter.
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(Note only month of interest (August) is adjusted statistically (past errors & statistical mode))
The weighted with the simple statistical (harmonic) model (above) is bringing the (unweighted by statistical model) super ensemble (below) quite a bit lower ....
Superensemble was biased warm May-June at end of warm of medium range, now it looks like possibly its gone back to being slightly cool (at least temporarily), but not sure about the increased cold bias in first 10 days of forecast period since end of June.
~
On top of this the range of the output for the 3 methods is very large (old model looks really bad though):
Point estimate (old, delta3 method, analog3 method) adjusted by prediction error mean: 1.3964, 1.2709 1.3001
Point estimate (mix), pre-adjusted by member prediction error mean: 1.3141
(stddev of 0.784 this far out, with the three methods as an ensemble).
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Reaching as high as a +6 or +7 C anomaly for Elizabeth in Antarctica next week.... East Antarctica also getting some large warm anomalies end of next week.
Kansas (and Oklahoma) still looks anomalously warm next week ....
Checking my email I notice that ECMWF is going to eventually disseminate (Oct+?) for money the gridded ERA5T NRT (I assume it will be the one you see calculated on copernicus daily that many use? So even if its NRT perhaps it will only be lagged 2 days instead of 5 -- or could be even earlier):
"
We are working on adding two new datasets to the ECMWF real-time catalogue and to dissemination via ECPDS for a fee. We expect these to become available from early Q4 2026.
ERA5T (class=ea, expver=0005): the preliminary, near-real-time version of the ERA5 reanalysis. The plan is to offer the same parameter set as on the Climate Data Store (single levels, pressure levels and model levels), starting with hourly data and adding monthly data later. The existing five-day embargo will apply at launch, and the model name in the file-naming convention will be ifs-era5t.
"
(people on polymarket that actually spend real money on these markets will probably end up subscribing.)
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tau=0 for RONI (from NINO4 anomaly looks like) for Aug 1 (two days ago) has shifted upwards .(a decent +0.17 C jump in the daily RONI from the day before) (should be able to see this in ERA5 in a few days ...) -- but this puts us slightly above 1997 now (no longer crossing it) and the mean stays above for the rest of the period. Seasonal plumes in ECM in couple days should be interesting if this holds ....
charts/plots:
Don't have much faith in the end of August forecasts given how much more El Nino looks to fire up this month.
At the moment my processing of EC46 shows a daily RONI going above historical from August 12 onwards... and given how much my (poorly) "calibrated" forecast of it is biased too cold it will probably exceed that 4-5 days earlier around August 8 or so, if the past performance is any measure (the week where the bias was low was where the tropics and nino3.4 biases happened to cancel out).
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Here is the doy anomaly for first half of August:
Western Antarctica still anomalously warm. Effects of El Nino still standing out.
Agreement among the three ensembles on anomalous warmth for Kansas/Oklahoma for second week of July, but GEPS disagrees about the western US.
Heat in Europe through the first week (with Hungary getting the longest lasting portion).
Greenland warm anomaly seems like there might be some easing at some point in the second week, or at least there isn't agreement on it in the ensembles at this point in time this far out.
