Will August 2026 be warmer than July 2026 (ERA5)?

Question

Resolves to mean of 'FINAL' ERA5 Copernicus daily '2t' (ABSOLUTE) temperatures from respective months (absolute not anomaly, and status must be FINAL for all days):

Resolution source: https://sites.ecmwf.int/data/climatepulse/data/series/era5_daily_series_2t_global.csv

In the low probability case of them being equal resolves YES.

If the final data is unavailable by close this resolves N/A. (Should resolve a few days after September starts.)

Note: this has a low chance (5%) of happening historically, thus the initial probability is set to 5%

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 92% chance (4 traders, as of Jul 18, 2026).