Resolves YES if, on or before 2026-12-31, TSMC's CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) advanced packaging capacity is no longer the binding constraint on advanced AI accelerator production, per publicly accessible evidence.

Public evidence sources accepted for resolution:

• TSMC public statement (earnings call transcript on SEC EDGAR equivalent / Taiwan Stock Exchange filings, or company press release) indicating CoWoS capacity meets or exceeds customer demand

• NVIDIA, AMD, or other major customer public statement indicating CoWoS capacity is no longer their bottleneck

• Public research reports from Epoch AI, CSET, or government statistical agencies on advanced-packaging supply

The criterion is "no longer binding" — i.e., the marginal additional unit of CoWoS capacity does not produce a meaningful increase in available AI accelerator units. This requires affirmative public evidence; absence of evidence resolves NO.

Resolution date: 2026-12-31.

About this market. This market is part of SCB/SCO Reference Run #001 — AI Compute (30-day longitudinal demonstration) under Leadership Under Uncertainty. It is a research-demonstration corpus, not a commercial product.

Open-Sources-Only Commitment. This market resolves only against publicly accessible sources (SEC filings, government data, public benchmark publications, public corporate communications). Subscription-gated analyst content is not used in resolution.

Creator-is-not-trader. The creator of this market does not place trades on it. Probabilities reflect community trading.

Pre-registration. Question wording, resolution criteria, and close date were locked before any market data was observed and cryptographically anchored on day 0 of the run via the SCB/SCO daily Merkle seal. See protocol.