Context: on Jan 16th OpenAI announced it was testing Ads in the Free and Go tiers of ChatGPT,

Anthropic recently released an ad ridiculing the idea of Ads in AI, with Demis sharing a similar sentiment in Davos and even Sam was vehemently opposed to Ads in AI, saying it would be a last resort.

Sam reacted with a long tweet (https://x.com/sama/status/2019139174339928189) saying he found the Ad funny but argued OpenAIs scale of their Free usage was much greater and the comparison was unfair since Anthropic’s Claude is “an expensive product for rich people” noting more “Texans use ChatGPT for free than total people use Claude in the US”

Fundamentally, the largest Corporations either sell Ads (Meta, Google) or Hardware (Apple, NVIDIA)

so whether OpenAI views Ads in ChatGPT as a core revenue stream as Meta and Google do and plan to make ads more intrusive (harder to distinguish from non-Ads similar to Google search) and personalized based on data users expect to stay private (see Meta lawsuits)

or a temporary stopgap to avoid losses on free usage that they plan to eventually rollback (perhaps once they release Jony Ive’s hardware device, they may lean into the focus on privacy as Apple does, possibly branding Anthropic as the Samsung/Android of the AI space i.e. targeting a small niche with new innovations but OpenAI adds it the “right way” for a broader audience)

Motivation:

The purpose of this question is to serve as a proxy for

1. How OpenAI views Ads (temporary or here to stay)

2. Will Anthropic become a direct competitor to OpenAI on the Consumer side and if so will they have to cave and join the Ads business (aka Sam’s long tweet is not just cope)

Relevant YouTube videos covering this:

• Primeagen: https://youtu.be/jUiZg4LQgiY?si=iJXPtjdMpQYFV7U_

• Caleb Writes Code:

  https://youtu.be/Oc2IZ__mG9Y?si=gpcLCMblV7B0AmW5

• Anthropic’s Super Bowl ad:

  https://youtu.be/kQRu7DdTTVA?si=DE_y3DHLNm2UEBwb

Articles:

OpenAI:

• https://openai.com/index/our-approach-to-advertising-and-expanding-access/

• https://openai.com/index/testing-ads-in-chatgpt/

Anthropic:

• https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-is-a-space-to-think

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to whichever outcome occurs first based on official announcements or implementations:

1. OpenAI significantly expands the scope of Ads in ChatGPT: OpenAI announced in January 2026 that it will begin testing ads in ChatGPT in the coming weeks for the free and Go tiers. "Significantly expands" means moving beyond initial testing to broader rollout across additional user tiers, geographies, or ad formats (e.g., expanding to Plus/Pro tiers, international markets, or introducing new ad placements beyond bottom-of-answer formats).

2. Anthropic adds Ads in one of their primary AI apps (currently Claude): Anthropic has promised to keep Claude ad-free, stating that a "conversation with Claude is not one of them" as a place for advertising. This resolves yes if Anthropic introduces any paid advertising to Claude's conversational interface.

3. OpenAI removes ads in ChatGPT: This resolves yes if OpenAI discontinues its advertising program after launch, returning ChatGPT to a fully ad-free experience across all tiers.

Resolution will be determined by official company announcements, press releases, or product changes visible to users. The first outcome to occur resolves yes; the others resolve no.

Background

OpenAI announced it will begin testing ads within ChatGPT in the coming weeks, a highly anticipated decision that could kick-start a lucrative new revenue stream. Ads will initially appear at the bottom of answers in ChatGPT when there's a relevant sponsored product or service based on your current conversation. Pro, Business, and Enterprise subscriptions will not include ads.

Anthropic plans to continue to monetize through enterprise contracts and paid subscriptions, with revenue reinvested in improving Claude. Anthropic gives itself an out in its ad-free pledge: "Should we need to revisit this approach, we'll be transparent about our reasons for doing so".

Considerations

Internal OpenAI documents project that "free user monetization" will generate $1 billion in 2026, scaling to nearly $25 billion by 2029, suggesting strong financial incentives for ad expansion. However, Anthropic plans to run a Super Bowl commercial positioning Claude as ad-free, indicating competitive pressure against ad adoption. The outcome depends on whether OpenAI's expansion efforts succeed, whether Anthropic's financial model can sustain without ads, and whether user backlash influences either company's strategy.

This description was generated by AI.