What will be true of the first model to cross 1400 on lmarena.ai?
Basic
3
Ṁ1882025
32%
Gemini Exp
22%
ChatGPT 4o
32%
o1
43%
Gemini 2.0
19%
Claude 3.5 Opus
19%
Claude 4
11%
Grok
32%
OpenAI model code named Orion
33%
GPT 5
Will resolve if a model stays at or above 1400 for a week and has a 95% CI with a lower bound of at least 1395 at the end of that week (somewhat arbitrary criteria to ensure the score is based on a sufficient amount of votes)
Will N/A if they change the scoring significantly so that a current model passes 1400.
Current rankings (11/22/24):
Gemini Exp 1121: 1365
ChatGPT 4o Latest (2024-11-20): 1360
Gemini Exp 1114: 1343
o1 preview: 1334
o1 mini: 1308
Gemini 1.5 Pro-002: 1301
Grok 2 0813: 1289
Yi Lightning: 1287
GPT 4o 2024-05-13: 1285
Claude 3.5 Sonnet (20241022): 1282
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
61% chance
Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?
9% chance
By the end of Q1 2025 will an open source model beat OpenAI’s o1 model?
66% chance
Will an AI achieve >30% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?
28% chance
What will be true of OpenAI's Orion model?
Will any LLM outrank GPT-4 by 150 Elo in LMSYS chatbot arena before 2025?
12% chance
Will openAI have the most accurate LLM across most benchmarks by EOY 2024?
39% chance
Will a OpenAI model have over 500k token capacity by the end of 2024.
50% chance
Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026?
56% chance
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
32% chance