via polymarket on 12/25

SBF

$1,883,600 Vol.

6%

Donald Trump

$1,965,940 Vol.

5%

Jim Biden

$420,783 Vol.

24%

Fauci

$514,470 Vol.

22%

Hillary Clinton

$115,751 Vol.

6%

Adam Schiff

$142,395 Vol.

15%

Liz Cheney

$142,764 Vol.

20%

Edward Snowden

$69,324 Vol.

5%

Julian Assange

$140,137 Vol.

6%

Ross Ulbricht

$855,441 Vol.

6%

Diddy

$421,189 Vol.

2%

Background

President Biden has the constitutional power to grant pardons for federal crimes. The individuals mentioned include:

• Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF): Convicted of fraud related to FTX collapse

• Donald Trump: Facing federal charges (though these would be moot if he wins the presidency)

• Jim Biden (President's brother): No current federal charges

• Anthony Fauci: No current federal charges

• Hillary Clinton: No current federal charges

• Adam Schiff: No current federal charges

• Liz Cheney: No current federal charges

• Edward Snowden: Charged with espionage, living in exile

• Julian Assange: Facing extradition and federal charges

• Ross Ulbricht: Serving life sentence for Silk Road

• Diddy: Under investigation but no federal charges yet

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to YES if President Biden does NOT issue presidential pardons to ANY of the listed individuals before leaving office. The market will resolve to NO if Biden pardons even one person from this list.

For resolution purposes:

• Only full pardons count (not commutations or other forms of clemency)

• Only federal pardons are relevant (state-level pardons are not within presidential power)

• The pardon must be officially issued and documented by the White House

• The pardon must occur during Biden's current term in office

Considerations

• Presidential pardons typically increase in frequency during the final months of a presidency

• Some individuals listed (like Jim Biden, Fauci, Clinton, Schiff, and Cheney) currently have no federal charges or convictions that would require pardons

• Trump's federal charges would become moot if he wins the 2024 presidential election

• State-level charges (such as Trump's New York cases) cannot be pardoned by the president