2024 Turnout vs Election Winner
Plus
6
Ṁ254Dec 1
25%
More than 2020, Harris wins
23%
More than 2020, Trump wins
24%
Less than 2020, Harris wins
28%
Less than 2020, Trump wins
The conventional wisdom is that low turnout favors Republicans and high turnout favors Democrats,
but will that change with Trump/Elon focusing on getting young low propensity voters and many (establishment) Republicans endorsing Harris indicating the 65+ demographic may have left Trump b/c of COVID/Jan 6th?
Turnout is measured by total # of voters (not as a %)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will absolute voter turnout in the 2024 US Presidential election be higher than 2020?
60% chance
Will the 2024 election have higher turnout than 2020?
46% chance
Will the 2024 President Election have a higher voter turnout than the 2020 Election?
42% chance
Will the 2024 President Election have a higher voter turnout than the 2020 Election?
38% chance
What will be the turnout rate for the 2024 election?
65% chance
Conditional on record high voter turnout, will Joe Biden win the 2024 election?
3% chance
2024 US Presidential Election: First vs Second Place Percentage Difference
What will be the outcome of the 2024 elections?
2024 Election Spreads | Swing States, Trump-Harris Popular Vote, and Selected Senate Seats
What will voter turnout be in the 2024 United States Presidential election?