Predict which of my random market ideas will be created (by anyone) and be successful relative to each other.
This is a market to surface which of my market ideas might be worth creating (by me or anyone else).
Each of these options is a market idea that popped into my head. Some more fleshed out than others. I've made this market because I’m not sure if I want to commit to following through on creating and running all these markets. The hope is that this market will provide some signal to me OR someone else which of these markets should exist.
Rules:
The market will close in two months.
All market ideas listed that did not get created resolve to NO.
For all ideas that do get created, the market will resolve the market with the highest number of unique traders they’ve received whenever I check approximately two months from now.
The market must have been created after this metamarket. (If a market already existed and I didn't know, I'll be grateful for it to be pointed out, but I think it would throw things off for it to be counted.)
Multiple markets can be created for an option. In which case, I will use the market with the most traders to inform resolution.
I must approve the market before it can count toward this metamarket. I'd expect an earnest attempt at strong resolution criteria. You can create the market and comment with a link to it, or troubleshoot the market in the comments to get the thumbs up before creating it.
Philosophy:
If Manifold grows, I expect a Reddit-style stratification between market creators, commenters, and bettors (good idea for a market). Only, maintaining a market is an even heavier lift than a Reddit post because you may have to field clarifications throughout the duration of the market and conduct a diligent resolution. So it stands to reason that Manifold market creators will become an even more exclusive group than Reddit posters. But that doesn’t mean that us plebeians don’t have good market ideas. There should be a way for folks who don’t necessarily want to chase creator glory to suggest the types of markets we’d like to bet on. This is an exploration of how that might work. It also opens the door for collaborating on a market’s creation and promotion.
Market Dynamics:
What should you do if you want a market in this list to exist but don't want to make it? Should you buy it down to incentivize its creation? Should you buy it up to signal that it would be successful? I'm not quite sure! Interested in hearing your thoughts.
I wasn't sure if I should make these metamarkets resolve proportionally or winner-take-all, so I made a second one with different ideas and proportional resolution:
Notes:
I tried to be a bit more discerning with the ideas I've chosen for this first experiment, but I envision future versions allowing for a very frictionless brain dump of very random market ideas. Every 5-10 markets I think of, just crank out another grab bag of markets and circle back later to see what struck a chord.
It might be nice for this metamarket to get a shoutout in the description or comments of it's offspring.
Are market ideas worth anything? Are folks willing to build out and run a market from an idea that isn't their own just for the promise of a trader bonuses and stats?
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ142 | |
| 2 | Ṁ57 |
@RobertCousineau Really solid criteria. Definitely counts! In terms of counting number of unique traders, I think I will still go off of the number in the top right corner (which I believe does not double count for a single user betting on multiple options) even though you get a bonus for each option a user trades on.
@BTE Brilliant, thank you! Bear in mind that this market can’t be counted because it was created before the metamarket.
@Charlie Imo if there is a question already created, it should count for your market. There is value in discovering pre-existing markets you missed in your search. Creating an incentive to create dupes is also a bit strange.
@AashiqDheeraj77eb Hmm. Maybe for next time. I agree that there’s value in surfacing them and that encouraging dupes is meh, but seems like it would sorta tank the rest of the metamarket since existing markets have a head start?
Could say for next time that if an existing market surfaces, that market idea resolves NO. Whoever finds it can get their reward by buying NO.
@Charlie That concern seems irrelevant, just blatant favoritism for certain outcomes from the creator.
Let them tank!
@AashiqDheeraj77eb It is relevant to me since my primary objective for this market it to manifest as many markets as possible from the listed ideas. This is an outcome I would indeed like to blatantly favor. If there's a way to incentivize surfacing overlooked existing markets without making it less likely for the other ideas to be created, that's the most favorable methodology. Promising to resolve surfaced markets NO would appear to both provide that incentive while keeping the other market ideas alive.