When will making an Iced Chai Latte at Starbucks be almost completely automated?

Question

Currently, making an Iced Chai Latte at Starbucks could be broken up into the following steps:

Retrieve Cup

Add X squirts of Chai Syrup

Add Y volume of Milk/Milk Substitute

Add Z volume of Ice

Affix Lid

Label (optional)

Hand to Customer

This market is interested in determining when steps 2-6 are automated (e.g. if all the Barista has to do is place a cup in the machine and then hand it to the customer, I'll count that as almost completely automated).

See the above link for a video of what is currently steps 2-4 (the intersting ones).

I will resolve this market to the grouping of years in which someone can buy an Iced Chai Latte in atelast 10 major metropolitan areas, without steps 2-6 being performed by a human. If some (but not all) stores in a metroplitan area are not automated, this market still resolves to that grouping of years.

I expect there to be news reports of this happening when it does - please post them here for an early resolution!

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 2028 or 2029, followed by Later than EOY 2031. and 2030 or 2031 are most likely. See the market for live updates (8 traders, as of Sep 10, 2026).