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MANIFOLD
Will the US government introduce any domestic restrictions on open-weight LLMs by EOY 2026?
12
Ṁ1kṀ1.3k
Dec 31
25%
chance
12

For the purposes of this market, “to introduce a domestic restriction on open-weight LLMs” means new federal action that removes or limits US citizens’ ability to develop, access, use, or modify one or more open-weight LLMs. “New” is relative to this market’s creation on June 13, 2026.

I will resolve to YES if, by the end of 2026, this occurs, is publicly reported, and is documented on this market. I will resolve to NO at the close of the market otherwise.

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Let's say that a similar supply chain risk designation was given to an open weight models as was given to Claude would this be enough to resolve the market "yes"?

bought Ṁ30 NO

how would they even try this?