What score will OpenAI's o3 achieve on FrontierMath?
4
Ṁ100Ṁ198resolved Dec 20
100%92%
20-29%
1.7%
0-4%
1.3%
5%-9%
1.3%
10-19%
1.3%
30-49%
1.1%
50-69%
1.1%
70+%
This market resolves as soon as OpenAI's o3 model (https://arcprize.org/blog/oai-o3-pub-breakthrough) is tested on FrontierMath by a reputable source. Currently, no model achieves even 2%, as noted on page 9 of https://arxiv.org/pdf/2411.04872
I will not bet in this market.
An introduction to FrontierMath can be found here https://epoch.ai/frontiermath
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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