Chanchana Sornsoontorn (Off)'s calibration
Grade: A-, Score: -0.84
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Chanchana Sornsoontorn (Off) bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
80%
- Will Elon abide by the results of his "should I step down as head of twitter" poll if the answer is YES?NOṀ10
- Will Elon abide by the results of his "should I step down as head of twitter" poll if the answer is YES?NOṀ10
- Will Elon abide by the results of his "should I step down as head of twitter" poll if the answer is YES?NOṀ10