Will Elon abide by the results of his "should I step down as head of twitter" poll if the answer is YES?
resolved Mar 6


Close date updated to 2023-02-28 5:59 pm

Resolves YES as long as:
1) By the time Elon's poll closes, it has more YES than NO votes

2) Elon then goes on to actually step down as head of twitter before the close date given here.

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Elon still seems to be CEO so this resolves NO.

predicted NO

lots of claims at the time that elon was alreaady selecting successors behind close doors, maybe to please saudis, and was just doing the poll as a PR stunt knowing what the outcome would be

predicted NO


This market paired with the one below

imply a 36% chance he steps down between Jan 18 and Feb 28

Defeated by a women’s basketball team

How would we go about confirming that he's actually stepped down as product designer, and and not just as brand ambassador?

predicted YES

@makoyass Basically if he officially gives up the title "Head", "CEO", or anything reasonably synonymous with that. If he officially gives up titular control, that's all that matters. As long as he retains ownership he'll always have a lot of control from behind the scenes, but that's a separate question.

predicted YES


but note: "When he finds a successor". This market only cares about if he's out as CEO (but is agnostic on whether he's still owner) by the resolution date.

What if he steps down for a different reason and/or disavows the poll even if it has more YES than NO votes?

There's a face-saving possibility of him refusing to abide to the results, at least of this poll specifically, because of bots:

predicted YES

@agentofuser The answer is now locked in as YES. That's all that matters, regardless of whether anyone decides later it was "legit" or not.

If he's still head of twitter as of the resolution date, this resolves NO. If he's not, it resolves YES.

Heh, we both made markets on this at the same time.

@IsaacKing Mine gives him slightly more time than yours, so each of us contributes a slightly different time horizon!

@LarsDoucet It’d be better if they had their end dates in the title, otherwise people have to click through