Will Elon abide by the results of his "should I step down as head of twitter" poll if the answer is YES?
14%
chance

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1604617643973124097

Close date updated to 2023-02-28 5:59 pm

Resolves YES as long as:
1) By the time Elon's poll closes, it has more YES than NO votes

2) Elon then goes on to actually step down as head of twitter before the close date given here.

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itsTomekK avatar
Tomek K 🟡bought Ṁ10 of NO
nmehndir avatar
nmehndir

This market paired with the one below

imply a 36% chance he steps down between Jan 18 and Feb 28

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting

Defeated by a women’s basketball team

makoyass avatar
mako yass

How would we go about confirming that he's actually stepped down as product designer, and and not just as brand ambassador?

LarsDoucet avatar
Lars Doucetis predicting YES at 72%

@makoyass Basically if he officially gives up the title "Head", "CEO", or anything reasonably synonymous with that. If he officially gives up titular control, that's all that matters. As long as he retains ownership he'll always have a lot of control from behind the scenes, but that's a separate question.

LarsDoucet avatar
Lars Doucetis predicting YES at 65%

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/20/technology/elon-musk-twitter-resign.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20221221&instance_id=80734&nl=from-the-times&regi_id=149283925&segment_id=120427&te=1&user_id=87b66ea78d6c6a3d855cffdffbf72ab7

but note: "When he finds a successor". This market only cares about if he's out as CEO (but is agnostic on whether he's still owner) by the resolution date.

agentofuser avatar
agentofuserbought Ṁ10 of NO

What if he steps down for a different reason and/or disavows the poll even if it has more YES than NO votes?

There's a face-saving possibility of him refusing to abide to the results, at least of this poll specifically, because of bots:

LarsDoucet avatar
Lars Doucetis predicting YES at 82%

@agentofuser The answer is now locked in as YES. That's all that matters, regardless of whether anyone decides later it was "legit" or not.

If he's still head of twitter as of the resolution date, this resolves NO. If he's not, it resolves YES.

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King

Heh, we both made markets on this at the same time.

LarsDoucet avatar
Lars Doucet

@IsaacKing Mine gives him slightly more time than yours, so each of us contributes a slightly different time horizon!

ian avatar
Ian Philipsbought Ṁ10 of YES

@LarsDoucet It’d be better if they had their end dates in the title, otherwise people have to click through