Will Elon abide by the results of his "should I step down as head of twitter" poll if the answer is YES? | Manifold Markets

closes Feb 28

Twitter Elon musk US Politics

Will Elon abide by the results of his "should I step down as head of twitter" poll if the answer is YES?

14%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1604617643973124097

Close date updated to 2023-02-28 5:59 pm

Resolves YES as long as:
1) By the time Elon's poll closes, it has more YES than NO votes

2) Elon then goes on to actually step down as head of twitter before the close date given here.

Sort by:

Tomek K 🟡bought Ṁ10 of NO

This market paired with the one below

imply a 36% chance he steps down between Jan 18 and Feb 28

Defeated by a women’s basketball team

How would we go about confirming that he's actually stepped down as product designer, and and not just as brand ambassador?

Lars Doucetis predicting YES at 72%

@makoyass Basically if he officially gives up the title "Head", "CEO", or anything reasonably synonymous with that. If he officially gives up titular control, that's all that matters. As long as he retains ownership he'll always have a lot of control from behind the scenes, but that's a separate question.

Lars Doucetis predicting YES at 65%

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/20/technology/elon-musk-twitter-resign.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20221221&instance_id=80734&nl=from-the-times&regi_id=149283925&segment_id=120427&te=1&user_id=87b66ea78d6c6a3d855cffdffbf72ab7

but note: "When he finds a successor". This market only cares about if he's out as CEO (but is agnostic on whether he's still owner) by the resolution date.

agentofuserbought Ṁ10 of NO

What if he steps down for a different reason and/or disavows the poll even if it has more YES than NO votes?

There's a face-saving possibility of him refusing to abide to the results, at least of this poll specifically, because of bots:

Lars Doucetis predicting YES at 82%

@agentofuser The answer is now locked in as YES. That's all that matters, regardless of whether anyone decides later it was "legit" or not.

If he's still head of twitter as of the resolution date, this resolves NO. If he's not, it resolves YES.

Heh, we both made markets on this at the same time.

@IsaacKing Mine gives him slightly more time than yours, so each of us contributes a slightly different time horizon!

Ian Philipsbought Ṁ10 of YES

@LarsDoucet It’d be better if they had their end dates in the title, otherwise people have to click through

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ93/Ṁ100 NO at 14% (cancelled)

bramie jim bought Ṁ50 YES from 11% to 15%

Dalton Jobe bought Ṁ10 NO at 11%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 11%

Edward Kmett bought Ṁ200 NO from 15% to 12%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ13/Ṁ100 YES at 15% (cancelled)

Isaac bought Ṁ270 NO from 18% to 14%

Dario bought Ṁ5 NO at 18%

Dustin filled limit order Ṁ50/Ṁ50 NO at 18%

Lucie Philippon bought Ṁ10 NO at 19%

Lucie Philippon sold Ṁ3 YES at 19%

PryingMind bought Ṁ10 YES at 19%

Zach Cardwell sold Ṁ9 NO from 18% to 19%

Alex... sold Ṁ82 NO from 17% to 18%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ14/Ṁ100 YES at 17% (cancelled)

Alex... sold Ṁ170 NO from 13% to 16%

Adrian sold Ṁ21 YES from 15% to 13%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 15%

jo roter sold Ṁ355 NO from 12% to 17%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ71/Ṁ100 NO at 12% (cancelled)

Matt Reardon bought Ṁ60 YES from 8% to 13%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ100 YES at 8% (cancelled)

Matt Reardon sold Ṁ89 YES from 14% to 6%

Timothy Kassis sold Ṁ31 YES from 16% to 14%

Fela bought Ṁ10 NO at 16%

Nathan sold Ṁ22 YES from 18% to 16%

Dustin filled limit order Ṁ83/Ṁ83 NO at 18%

Andrei Gavrea bought Ṁ24 NO from 20% to 19%

Alexander Kirk Jørgensen bought Ṁ45 YES from 16% to 20%

Ismaël Benslimane bought Ṁ10 NO from 17% to 16%

Alex... sold Ṁ86 NO from 15% to 17%

Zach Cardwell bought Ṁ10 NO at 15%

pulsior bought Ṁ10 YES at 15%

Odoacre bought Ṁ10 NO at 15%

Evan Þ bought Ṁ40 NO at 15%

Edward Kmett bought Ṁ100 NO from 17% to 15%

Edward Kmett bought Ṁ92 NO from 18% to 17%

Jonathan Ray sold Ṁ11 YES from 19% to 18%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 19%

Steve Irwin bought Ṁ50 YES from 17% to 21%

Andrei Gavrea bought Ṁ10 NO from 18% to 17%

Katja Grace bought Ṁ20 YES from 16% to 18%

Marcus Aurelius sold Ṁ10 YES from 17% to 16%

Fela sold Ṁ48 NO from 16% to 17%

Fela sold Ṁ8 NO at 16%

Fela sold Ṁ42 NO from 15% to 16%

Fela sold Ṁ68 NO from 14% to 15%

Fela bought Ṁ50 NO from 15% to 14%

Fela bought Ṁ100 NO from 17% to 15%

Fela bought Ṁ100 NO from 18% to 17%